Live Index – Mon, 15 Sep 2014 Premarket

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.09%) this morning are down -0.16% at a 3-week low and European stocks are down -0.07% on concern a slowdown of China’s economy will undercut global economic prospects after China Aug industrial output rose at the slowest pace in 5-1/2 years. The Russian ruble slipped to a record low of 38.1016 per dollar on concern Russia’s economy will slow further after the U.S. and EU expanded economic sanctions against Russia last Friday. Stocks recovered from their worst levels on increased M&A activity after Cognizant Technology Solutions bought TriZetto Corp. for $ 2.7 billion and after Danaher acquired Nobel Biocare Holding AG for $ 2.2 billion. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.97%, China -0.05%, Taiwan -0.06%, Australia -1.04%, Singapore -0.99%, South Korea -0.32%, India -0.90%. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -1.09%) is down -0.82%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.61%) is down -0.17%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.38%) is up +0.40%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.60%) is down -0.79%. Agriculture prices are weaker with Dec wheat down -1.00% at a fresh contract low. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) is up +0.12%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.32%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is down -0.07%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.09%) are up +4 ticks.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said it sees “significant risks” to the global economic recovery and cut its 2014 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.1% from a May estimate of 2.6% and cut its 2014 Eurozone GDP forecast to 0.8% from a May forecast of 1.2%.

China Aug industrial production rose +6.9% y/y, less than expectations of +8.8% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in 5-1/2 years.

China Aug retail sales rose +11.9% y/y, less than expectations of +12.1% y/y and matched Apr’s increase as the slowest pace in 5-1/2 years.

China Aug fixed asset investment growth rose +16.5% y/y, less than expectations of +16.9% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 12-1/2 years.

UK Sep Rightmove house prices rose +0.9% m/m, the first increase in 3 months, and on an annual basis house prices rose +7.9% y/y, the most in 4 months.

The market is expecting today’s Aug industrial production report to show an increase of +0.3%, adding to the +0.4% increase seen in July. Meanwhile, the market is expecting today’s Sep Empire manufacturing index to show a +1.31 point increase to 16.0, recovering some ground after Aug’s decline of -10.91 to 14.69 and remaining in relatively strong territory. There are no earnings reports today from the Russell 1000 companies.

Equity conferences this week include: Citi Investment Research Investor Meetings on Mon, Morgan Stanley Industrials Conference on Mon-Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Consumer & Retail Conference on Tue, J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference on Tue, J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference on Tue, Morgan Stanley Marcellus-Utica Summit on Tue, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Power & Gas Leaders Conference on Tue-Wed, Deutsche Bank Access Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Thu, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Healthcare Conference on Wed, Capital Link Global Commodities Energy & Freight Forum on Wed, Wolfe Research Power & Gas Leaders Conference on Wed-Thu, Morningstar Management Behind the Moat Conference on Wed-Thu, UBS Houston Energy Bus-less Tour on Wed-Thu, Credit Suisse Chemical & Ag Science Conference on Thu, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, MKM Partners Entertainment, Leisure & Internet Conference on Thu, 5th Annual Summit Internal Audit on Thu-Fri, GTC 7th CNS Partnering & Deal-Making on Thu-Fri, Imperial Capital Global Opportunities Conference on Thu, Tokyo Game Show 2014 on Fri, and Zelman & Associates Housing Summit on Fri.

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH -0.62%) will acquire Trizetto for $ 2.7 billion in cash.

Barrick Gold (ABX -2.02%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underweight’ at HSBC.

Acuity Brands (AYI -0.03%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Cree (CREE -1.32%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Yahoo! (YHOO +3.93%) rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading after Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce company in which Yahoo is the second-biggest shareholder, said it plans to increase the top end of its IPO price range to above $ 70 amid stong investor demand.

Chuy’s (CHUY -0.66%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at KeyBanc.

Universal Health (UHS -1.36%) will replace Peabody Coal (BTU unch) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Sep 19.

United Rentals (URI +0.43%) will replace Graham Holdings (GHC -0.38%) in the S&P 500 as of the close of trading on Sep 19.

HSBC (HSBC +0.55%) confirms it will pay the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) $ 550 million to settle the claims brought by FHFA in 2011 related to residential mortgage-backed securities that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchased from HSBC between 2005 and 2007.

P2 Capital Partners reported a 5.4% stake in Blackhawk (HAWK -0.18%) .

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.09%) this morning are down -3.25 points (-0.16%) at a new 3-week low. The S&P 500 Index on Friday fell to a 3-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.60%, Dow Jones -0.36%, Nasdaq -0.57%. The main bearish factor for stocks was long-liquidation pressures spurred by concern that recent strength in U.S. economic data may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than currently thought. Bullish factors included (1) the U.S. Aug retail sales report of +0.6% and +0.3% ex autos, right on expectations, and (2) the +2.1 increase in U.S. Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence to 84.6, better than expectations of +0.8 to 83.5 and the highest in 14 months.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.09%) this morning are up +4 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday slid to a 1-1/2 month low. Bearish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected jump in U.S. Sep University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence to a 14-month high, and (2) speculation the FOMC will be more hawkish at the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting in order to prepare the markets for interest rate hikes. Closes: TYZ4 -16.50, FVZ4 -4.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.11%) this morning is up +0.102 (+0.12%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0042 (-0.32%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) strength in EUR/USD after Eurozone Jul industrial production rose more than expected, and (2) pre-weekend profit-taking after the recent run-up in the dollar index to a 14-month high. Supportive factors for the dollar included (1) the rise in the Sep U.S. consumer confidence index to a 14-month high, and (2) weakness in the yen as USD/JPY climbed to a new 5-3/4 year high. Closes: Dollar index -0.058 (-0.07%), EUR/USD +0.0038 (+0.30%), USD/JPY +0.232 (+0.22%).

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 -1.09%) this morning is down -76 cents (-0.82%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.61%) is down -0.0042 (-0.17%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower: CLV4 -0.56 (-0.60%), RBV4 -0.0053 (-0.21%). Bearish factors included (1) carry-over weakness from Thursday after the IEA cut its 2014 global oil demand forecast by -150,000 bpd to 92.6 million bpd and cut its 2015 global oil demand forecast by -165,000 bpd to 93.8 million bpd, and (2) concern that Europe’s economy may slow further after the EU and the U.S. both announced additional economic sanctions on Russia, and (3) the increase in Libyan oil production to 850,000 bpd as of Sep 11 from 400,000 bpd in July.