Live Index – Mon, 18 Aug 2014 Premarket

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.55%) this morning are up +0.49% at a 2-week high and European stocks are up +1.06% on reduced geopolitical tensions as Ukraine and Russia met for peace talks. The yield on Ireland’s 10-year bond fell to 1.949%, the lowest since Bloomberg data began in 1991, after Fitch upgraded Ireland’s credit rating to A- from BBB+. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.03%, Hong Kong unchanged, China +0.59%, Taiwan -0.71%, Australia +0.37%, Singapore -0.06%, South Korea -0.62%, India +1.10%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index climbed to an 8-1/4 month high on speculation that sliding property prices will prompt the PBOC to loosen monetary policy in order to support the economy. China’s 7-day repurchase rate also fell to a 1-3/4 month low of 3.20% after China Jul new home prices fell in 64 out of 70 cities tracked by the government. Commodity prices are mixed. Sep crude oil (CLU14 -0.96%) is down -1.01% after Kurdish forces made progress against militants in northern Iraq and after Libyan oil production rose to 540,000 bpd from 415,000 bpd on Aug 14. Sep gasoline (RBU14 -1.05%) is down -0.96%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.34%) is down -0.24%. Sep copper (HGU14 +0.13%) is unchanged. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) is up +0.050% (+0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.08%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11 (+0.11%). Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 -0.16%) are down -7 ticks.

In its monthly report for Aug, the Bundesbank said that “the economic outlook for the German economy has clouded over in the middle of the year in response to unfavorable international news and that expectations for a strengthening of economic momentum in the second half of 2014 underlying the spring projections are called into question by current data.”

China July new-home prices fell in 64 of the 70 cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics, the most since Jan 2011 when the government changed the way it compiles the data.

China Jul foreign direct investment unexpectedly plunged -17.0% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +0.8% y/y and the largest decline in 5 years.

The Eurozone Jun trade balance (nsa) widened to a +16.8 billion surplus from +15.4 billion euros in May, the largest surplus in 7 months.

UK Aug Rightmove house prices fell -2.9% m/m, the second straight monthly decline and the biggest fall in 20 months. On an annual basis, Aug home prices rose +5.3% y/y, the smallest gain in 9 months.

The market is expecting today’s Aug NAHB housing market index to be unchanged from July’s 6-month high of 53.  There is one S&P 500 company that reports earnings today:  Urban Outfitters (consensus $ 0.48).  Equity conferences this week include:  Enercom, Inc Oil & Gas Conference on Mon-Thu, and 8th Annual Forum on Transparency & Aggregate Spending on Tue-Wed.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -1.46%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Monness Crespi.

Credit Suisse rates Union Pacific (UNP +0.26%) as an ‘Outperform” and recommends building positions in the company as it raises its price target on the stock to $ 119 from $ 115.

RenaissanceRe (RNR +0.49%) was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Hold’ at Deutsche Bank.

WellCare (WCG -0.35%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Wedbush.

General Electric (GE -0.93%) was reinstated with an ‘Outperform’ at Credit Suisse with a price target of $ 30.

CNBC reports that Dollar General (DG -0.73%) offered to buy Family Dollar Stores ({=FDO for $ 78.50 a share.

Monster Beverage (MNST +30.48%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Jefferies due to valuation.

Raytheon (RTN +0.04%) was awarded a $ 109.1 million government contract for engineering services for the Patriot System Tracking Radar.

Becker Drapkin reported a 6.4% stake in Fuel Systems (FSYS +0.76%) .

Whale Rock Capital reported a 5.2% passive stake in Textura (TXTR +3.04%) .

SAB Capital Advisors reported a 6.4% passive stake in Colony Financial (CLNY +1.09%) .

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 +0.55%) this morning are up +9.50 points (+0.49%) at a 2-week high. The S&P 500 index on Friday fell back from a 2-week high and closed little changed: S&P 500 -0.01%, Dow Jones -0.30%, Nasdaq +0.46%. Bearish factors included (1) the -10.91 point drop in the Aug Empire manufacturing index, a bigger decline than expectations of -5.60 to 20.00, (2) the unexpected -2.6 point drop in the early-Aug University of Michigan U.S. consumer confidence to a 9-month low of 79.2, weaker than expectations of +0.7 to 82.5, and (3) concern about the escalation of the Ukraine conflict after Ukraine troops attacked an armed convoy that had crossed its border from Russia.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 -0.16%) this morning are down -7 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday surged to an 8-1/2 month nearest-futures high. Bullish factors included (1) increased safe-haven demand on concern about an escalation of the Ukraine crisis after Ukraine troops attacked a military convoy that entered its country from Russia, and (2) economic concerns after the Aug Empire manufacturing index declined more than expected and the U.S. Aug University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to a 9-month low. Closes: TYU4 +11.00, FVU4 +4.50.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.02%) this morning is up +0.050 (+0.06%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0011 (-0.08%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11 (+0.11%). The dollar index on Friday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) U.S. economic concerns after the Aug Empire manufacturing index fell more than expected and the U.S. Aug University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to a 9-month low, and (2) strength in USD/JPY on increased safe-haven demand for the yen as stocks fell on concern about the escalation of the Ukraine crisis. Closes: Dollar index -0.164 (-0.20%), EUR/USD +0.00289 (+0.22%), USD/JPY -0.114 (-0.11%).

Sep WTI crude oil (CLU14 -0.96%) this morning is down -98 cents (-1.01%) and Sep gasoline (RBU14 -1.05%) is down -0.0258 (-0.96%). Sep crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed sharply higher: CLU4 +1.77 (+1.85%), RBU4 +0.0320 (+1.20%). Bullish factors included (1) a weaker dollar, (2) the stronger-than-expected U.S. Jul industrial production report, and (3) short-covering spurred by concern about the escalation of the Ukraine crisis after Ukraine troops attacked a convoy of Russian military vehicles entering Ukraine.