Live Index – Thu, 19 Jun 2014 Premarket

September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.03%) this morning are down -0.03% as they fall back from a record high and European stocks are up +1.13% at a 5-3/4 year high after the FOMC said yesterday they expect interest rates to stay low for a “considerable time” and after Fed Chair Yellen said that accommodative monetary policy, rising home and equity prices and improvement in the global economy should help fuel above-trend growth in the U.S. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.62%, Hong Kong -0.06%, China -1.54%, Taiwan +0.40%, Australia +1.59%, Singapore -0.24%, South Korea +0.05%, India -0.18%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index climbed to a 4-1/2 month high on optimism that improvement in the U.S. economy will boost Japanese exports, while China’s Shanghai Stock Index fell to a 2-week low on concern that a slowdown in China’s property market will undercut economic growth. Commodity prices are mostly higher as the dollar weakens. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.31%) is up +0.38%. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.59%) is up +0.57%. Aug gold (GCQ14 +0.75%) is up +0.71%. July copper (HGN14 +0.21%) is up +0.26%. Agriculture and livestock prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.46%) is down -0.44% at a 4-week low after the FOMC cut its U.S. growth outlook for this year and said it will keep interest rated near zero for a “considerable time.” EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.24% at a 1-1/2 week high and GBP/USD rose +0.16% to a 4-3/4 year high on speculation the BOE will begin to raise interest rates before the Fed. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.29%) are up +12.5 ticks at a 1-1/2 week high and the yield on the 10-year German bund tumbled to a 1-month low on speculation the Fed’s monetary stance will keep long-term bond yields low.

The UK Jun CBI trends volume of total orders rose to 11 from zero in May, stronger than expectations of an increase to 2 and the highest in 6 months. The Jun CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly fell to 3 from 4 in May, less than expectations of an increase to 5 and the lowest in 8 months.

UK May retail sales ex autos fell -0.5% m/m, less than expectations of -0.6% m/m, and rose +4.7% y/y, less than expectations of +4.8% y/y. May retail sales including autos fell -0.5% m/m, right on expectations and rose +3.9% y/y, less than expectations of +4.3% y/y.

The Japan Apr all-industry activity index fell -4.3% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -4.1% m/m and the most in 3 years.

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -5,000 to 312,000, more than reversing last week’s +4,000 increase to 317,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to fall -14,000 to 2.600 million, more than reversing last week’s +11,000 increase to 2.614 million. Today’s June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a -1.4 point decline to 14.0, adding to the small -1.2 point decline to 15.4 seen in May. Today’s May leading indicators report is expected to show a solid increase of +0.6%, adding to the +0.4% increase seen in April. The Treasury today will sell $ 7 billion of 30-year TIPS.

There are four of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Kroger (consensus $ 1.05), IHS (1.44), Oracle (0.96), and TIBCO Software (0.13). Equity conferences this week include: Predictive Analytics World Conference on Tue-Thu, Jefferies Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, Citi CorpGlobal Water Conference on Thu, Goldman Sachs European Chemicals Vision Conference on Thu, J.P. Morgan Oil & Gas Corporate Access Day on Thu, Morgan Stanley China Industrials Summit on Thu, and Noia Conference 2014 on Thu.

Juniper (JNPR +0.24%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Mizuho.

BlackBerry (BBRY +2.98%) reported a Q1 EPS ex-items loss of -11 cents, a much smaller loss than consensus of -26 cents.

ConAgra (CAG -7.25%) was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Buy’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Monster Beverage (MNST +1.62%) was initiated with an ‘Outperform’ at Wells Fargo with a price target range of $ 79-$ 81.

NVIDIA (NVDA -0.10%) was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at BofA/Merrill Lynch.

Pier 1 Imports (PIR +0.44%) reported Q1 EPS of 16 cents, weaker than consensus of 20 cents, and then cut guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $ 1.14-$ 1.22 from $ 1.16-$ 1.24, on the low end of consensus of $ 1.21.

FedEx (FDX +6.16%) was upgraded to ‘Sector Perform’ from ‘Underperform’ at RBC Capital.

Vodafone (VOD +1.87%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at BofA/Merrill.

Starbucks (SBUX +0.33%) gained over 1% in pre-market trading after UBS upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ and raised their price target on the stock to $ 87 from $ 80.

Gabelli reporte a 12.14% stake in Ryman Hospitality (RHP +0.64%) .

Clarcor (CLC +0.12%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 76 cents, well above consensus of 62 cents.

Measurement Specialties (MEAS +0.32%) is up over 10% in after hours trading after TE Connectivity (TEL +0.26%) said it will acquire the company for $ 1.7 billion.

Red Hat (RHT +1.28%) rose 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 34 cents, better than consensus of 33 cents.

Jabil Circuit (JBL +0.65%) climbed over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q3 core EPS loss of -6 cents, a smaller loss than consensus of -9 cents as is Q3 revenue was $ 3.8 billion, higher than consensus of $ 3.6 billion.

Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.03%) this morning are down -0.50 of a point (-0.03%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday surged to a record high and closed higher. Bullish factors for stocks included (1) the post-FOMC meeting statement that said “growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months” and that highly accommodative policy “remains appropriate,” and (2) the FOMC’s cut in its jobless rate forecast to 6.0%-6.1% from a Mar estimate of 6.1%-6.3%. Closes: S&P 500 +0.77%, Dow Jones +0.58%, Nasdaq +0.62%.

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.29%) this morning are up +12.5 ticks at a 1-1/2 week high. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday recovered from a 1-month low and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the Fed’s cut its U.S. 2014 GDP estimate, and (2) the post-FOMC meeting statement that said highly accommodative policy “remains appropriate” as the jobless rate is lower but still “elevated.” Closes: TYU4 +11.50, FVU4 +5.50.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.46%) this morning is down -0.352 (-0.44%) at a 4-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0032 (+0.24%) at a 1-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.07 (-0.07%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the U.S. Q1 account balance that widened to its largest deficit in 1-1/2 years, and (2) the Fed’s cut in its U.S. 2014 GDP estimate. Closes: Dollar Index -0.045 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.00487 (+0.36%), USD/JPY -0.229 (-0.22%).

July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.31%) this morning is up +40 cents (+0.38%). July gasoline (RBN14 +0.59%) is up +0.0178 (+0.57%). July crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed. Crude prices fell back on bearish factors that included (1) the +247,000 bbl increase in oil supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of WTI futures, the first increase in the last ten weeks, and (2) the +0.2% increase in U.S. crude oil production in the week ended Jun 13 to 8.477 million bpd, a new 27-1/2 year high. Gasoline rose after the U.S. refinery capacity rate fell -0.8 to a 2-3/4 month low of 87.1%, which signals lower near-term gasoline production. Closes: CLN4 -0.39 (-0.37%) RBN4 +0.0051 (+0.16%).