Live Index – Mon, 12 May 2014 Premarket

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.39%) this morning are up +0.40% and European stocks are up +0.50% on increased M&A activity after Hillshire Foods said it will buy Pinnacle Foods in a $ 6.6 billion dollar deal along with speculation China will boost measures to stimulate economic growth. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.35%, Hong Kong +1.82%, China +2.16%, Taiwan -0.91%, Australia -0.23%, Singapore -0.91%, South Korea +0.59%, India +2.42%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 1-1/2 week high on speculation the government will take steps to support the market after Chinese President Xi Jinping said the government must prevent risks and take “timely counter-measures to reduce potential negative effects” of faltering growth. Chinese stocks also received a boost after the State Council said the government will relax foreign-investment limits in listed companies, increase quotas for capital flows, and develop commodities trading tools. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 +0.45%) is up +0.46%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.97%) is up +0.92%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.61%) is up +0.55%. July copper (HGN14 +2.06%) is up +2.24% at a 2-month high on signs of smaller supplies after LME copper inventories fell -3,000 MT to 205,325 MT, the lowest in 5-1/2 years. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) is down -0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.06%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.

China Apr aggregate financing, China’s broadest measure of new credit, fell to 1.55 trillion yuan from 2.07 trillion yuan in Mar. China Apr new yuan loans were 774.7 billion yuan, less than expectations of 800.0 billion yuan.

UK Apr Lloyds consumer barometer of employment confidence rose to 1 from -1 in Mar, the highest since that data series began in 2004.

Japan Apr bankruptcies rose +1.66% y/y, the first increase in 1-1/2 years.

Japan Apr eco-watchers expectations of confidence survey rose +25.6 from Mar to 50.3, better than expectations of +5.3 to 40.0 and the highest since government data began in 2000. Apr eco-watchers survey of current conditions fell -16.3 from Mar to 41.6, weaker than expectations of -12.9 to 45.0 and the lowest in 17 months.

The markets this week will focus on (1) the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and whether the U.S. and Europe may yet launch sectoral sanctions against Russia, (2) Fed Chair Yellen’s comments on Thursday before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S. Small Business Association along with comments by four other Fed officials this week, and (3) this week’s fairly busy U.S. economic schedule. The markets will be watching oil prices as another round of nuclear talks with Iran gets underway today in Vienna. There are 6 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Concho Resources (consensus $ 0.98), McKesson (2.40), MBIA (0.14), Premier (0.32), Babcock & Wilcox (0.42), Rackspace Hosting (0.12).

Equity conferences this week include: Credit Suisse Shale Symposium on Mon, Deutsche Bank Access Clean Tech, Utilities & Power Conference on Mon, BMO Capital Markets IT Services Day on Tue, Goldman Sachs Global Staples Summit on Tue, Macquarie Extreme Services Conference on Tue, Nomura Global Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Conference on Tue, Nomura Inaugural Global Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Conference on Tue, Wedbush Transformational Technologies Management Access Conference on Tue, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference on Tue, Barclays Americas Select Franchise Conference on Tue-Wed, Citi Global Energy & Utilities Conference on Tue-Wed, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Summit on Tue-Wed, Credit Suisse Industrial & Environmental Services Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Technology Conference on Wed, ISI Bermuda Energy Conference on Wed, J.P. Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference on Wed, Embedded Systems Expo & Conference (ESEC) on Wed, Credit Suisse Disruptive Technology Conference on Wed, Sanford C Bernstein & Co Inaugural Thematic Financials Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, RBC Capital Markets Aerospace and Defense Investor Day on Wed-Thu, JP Morgan Cazenove Business Service Conference on Thu, JP Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference on Thu, JP Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference on Thu, and Janney Spring Growth Conference on Fri.

Travelers (TRV +0.07%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Guggenheim.

Twitter (TWTR +0.28%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at SunTrust.

Hillshire Brands (HSH +0.65%) will acquire Pinnacle Foods (PF +0.69%) for $ 6.6 billion.

Deere (DE +0.06%) was downgraded to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at Longbow.

Actavis (ACT -0.44%) was upgraded to ‘Top Pick’ from ‘Outperform’ at RBC Capital.

Chrysler (FIATY +1.16%) is recalling 780,000 2010-2014 Dodge Grand Caravan and Chrysler Town & Country minivans due to reports of overheating.

Pandora (P +1.89%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at MKM Partners.

M&T Bank (MTB +0.37%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Core Laboratories (CLB -0.18%) lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $ 5.80-$ 6.00 from $ 6.00-$ 6.25, below consensus of $ 6.20.

Logitech (LOGI -2.49%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at Credit Suisse.

Barclays (BCS -1.07%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Exane BNP Paribas.

Standard General reported a 9.8% passive stake in RadioShack (RSH -9.52%) .

Gabelli reported a 9.1% stake in National Fuel (NFG +0.74%) .

Amarin (AMRN -3.21%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Citigroup.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.39%) this morning are up +7.50 points (+0.40%). The S&P 500 index on Friday closed slightly higher: S&P 500 +0.15%, Dow Jones +0.20%, Nasdaq +0.43%. The main bullish factor Friday was stronger-than-expected Q1 company earnings results as 76% of the 453 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings results have exceeded profit estimates. Limiting strength in stocks was (1) negative carry-over from a slide in European stocks on concern of slowing growth in the Eurozone after German Mar exports unexpectedly fell -1.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +1.3% m/m and the largest decrease in 10 months, and (2) Chinese demand concerns after China Apr CPI rose +1.8% y/y, less than expectations of +2.1% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 1-1/2 years.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.10%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday fell back from a 2-month high and closed lower: TYM4 -3.50, FVM4 -0.50. Bearish factors included (1) supply overhand as U.S. bond dealers distribute the $ 69 billion of T-notes and T-bonds they bought at the Treasury’s May refunding, and (2) expectations for the Fed to continue to taper its bond buying program.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.08%) this morning is down -0.070 (-0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0001 (-0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.06 (+0.06%). The dollar index on Friday rose to a 1-week high and closed higher: Dollar index +0.542 (+0.68%), EUR/USD -0.0079 (-0.57%), USD/JPY +0.138(+0.14%). The main bullish factor was weakness in EUR/USD which tumbled to a 1-month low after (1) the unexpected -1.8% m/m decline in German Mar exports, the largest decrease in 10 months, and (2) negative carry-over from Thursday’s comments from ECB President Draghi who said the ECB would be “comfortable” with further easing at its June policy meeting.

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 +0.45%) this morning is up +46 cents (+0.46%). Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.97%) is up _0.0266 (+0.92%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed lower. Jun crude fell back from a 1-week high on bearish factors that included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a 1-week high, and (2) the unexpected decline in German Mar exports, a sign of economic weakness. Closes: CLM4 -0.27 (-0.27%). RBM4 -0.0090 (-0.31%).