Live Index – Tue, 06 May 2014 Premarket

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.04%) this morning are up +0.11% and European stocks are down -0.07% as the unrest in Ukraine intensifies. Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said that rebels have seized more than 30 government buildings in the eastern part of the country, and that government forces were sent to the southern city of Odessa to quell disturbances there. Losses in European stocks were limited after the OECD raised its Eurozone 2014 GDP estimates and after Eurozone Mar retail sales unexpectedly rose. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holiday, China +0.04%, Taiwan +0.47%, Australia +0.35%, Singapore +0.12%, India +0.28%. Commodity prices are mixed. Jun crude oil (CLM14 +0.17%) is up +0.22%. Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.21%) is up +0.29%. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.11%) is down -0.02%. July copper (HGN14 +0.29%) is up +0.16%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.44%) is down -0.39% at a 6-1/4 month low after the OECD cut its U.S. 2014 GDP estimate. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.43% at a 1-1/2 month high on expectations the ECB will refrain from additional stimulus measures at Thursday’s policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.30%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.10%) are down -3.5 ticks ahead of the start of the Treasury’s May quarterly refunding.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its global 2014 GDP forecast to 3.4% from 3.6% predicted in November, the second reduction in 6 months, as it lowered its China 2014 GDP estimate to 7.4% from a Nov estimate of 8.2%. The OECD hiked its Eurozone 2014 GDP forecast to 1.2% from a 1.0% estimate in Nov, while it lowered its U.S. 2014 GDP forecast to 2.6% from a 2.9% estimate in Nov.

The Eurozone Markit Apr composite PMI was left unchanged at 54.0, right on expectations and the fastest pace of expansion in 2-3/4 years.

Eurozone Mar retail sales unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m, better than expectations of -0.2% m/m, while on an annual basis Mar retail sales rose +0.9% y/y, less than expectations of +1.0% y/y.

The UK Markit/CIPS Apr composite PMI rose +1.4 to 59.2, the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.

Today’s March U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$ 40.5 billion from -$ 42.3 billion in February. The Treasury today will sell $ 29 billion of 3-year T-notes. There are 26 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include Walt Disney (consensus $ 0.95), Allstate (1.20), Emerson Electric (0.81), First Solar (0.52), Marathon Oil (0.72), Electronic Arts (0.11), Whole Foods Markets (0.41).

Equity conferences this week include: Barclays Chemical ROC Stars Conference on Tue, Barclays High Yield Bond & Syndicated Loan Conference on Tue, Robert W. Baird & Co. Growth Stock Conference on Tue-Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference on Wed-Thu, Wells Fargo Industrial & Construction Conference on Wed-Thu, Jefferies Global Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Tue-Thu, and
Deutsche Bank Healthcare Conference on Wed-Fri.

Avago (AVGO -0.03%) jumped over 4% in pre-market trading after it was announced that it will replace LSI Corp. (LSI unch) in the S&P 500 as of the May 7 close.

Emerson Electric (EMR +0.13%) reported Q2 EPS of 77 cents, weaker than consensus of 81 cents.

Discovery Commnications (DISCA +1.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 75 cents, higher than consensus of 71 cents.

DirecTV (DTV -0.04%) reported Q1 EPS of $ 1.44, below consensus of $ 1.48

EOG Resources (EOG +2.26%) reported Q1 EPS of $ 1.21, better than consensus of $ 1.20.

Barron’s reported that four Discover (DFS -0.16%) insiders sold 140,353 shares of stock.

Axiall (AXLL +0.91%) reported a Q1 adjusted EPS loss of -8 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -5 cents.

athenahealth (ATHN -0.02%) plunged 10% in after-hours trading after activist investor David Einhorn said he is short the stock.

Murphy USA (MUSA +4.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 21 cents, below consensus of 22 cents.

Alleghany (Y +0.56%) reported Q1 EPS of $ 12.28, well above consensus of $ 8.02.

Thor Industries (THO -0.34%) reported Q3 preliminary revenue of $ 1.05 bllion, below consensus of $ 1.09 billion.

Anadarko (APC -0.08%) reported Q1 EPS of $ 1.26, better than consensus of $ 1.16.

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG -1.08%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $ 2.17, stronger than consensus of $ 1.97.

AIG (AIG +0.71%) reported Q1 EPS of $ 1.21, higher than consensus of $ 1.07.

Genpact (G -1.34%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 24 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.04%) this morning are up +2.00 points (+0.11%). The S&P 500 index on Monday shook off early losses and closed higher: S&P 500 +0.19%, Dow Jones +0.11%, Nasdaq +0.49%. Bearish factors for stocks included (1) Chinese growth concerns after the China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 48.1 from the originally reported 48.3, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 48.4, and (2) geopolitical risks after violence in Ukraine spread to the southern part of the country. Stocks rebounded after the Apr ISM non-manufacturing index rose +2.1 to 55.2, a larger increase than expectations of +0.9 to 54.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 8 months.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.10%) this morning are down -3.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger-than-expected Apr ISM non-manufacturing index that expanded at the fastest pace in 8 months, and (2) supply pressures as the Treasury auctions $ 69 billion of T-notes and T-bonds in this week’s May quarterly refunding. Closes: TYM4 -2.50, FVM4 unch.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.44%) this morning is down -0.308 (-0.39%) at a 6-1/4 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0060 (+0.43%) at a 1-1/2 month high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31 (-0.30%). The dollar index on Monday closed slightly lower. Dollar index -0.030 (-0.04%), EUR/USD +0.0004 (+0.03%), USD/JPY -0.066 (-0.06%). Negative factors for the dollar included (1) strength in the yen after USD/JPY fell to a 2-week low after BOJ Governor Kuroda said in a CNBC interview that the economic recovery is on track, which dampened speculation the BOJ would add to monetary stimulus, and (2) strength in EUR/USD on speculation that the ECB at Thursday’s policy meeting will refrain from additional stimulus measures.

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 +0.17%) this morning is up +22 cents (+0.22%). Jun gasoline (RBM14 +0.21%) is up +0.0084 (+0.29%). Jun crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed lower with Jun gasoline at a 4-week low. Bearish factors included (1) concern that China’s economy may slow further after the China Apr HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower, and (2) weakness in gasoline on expectations for U.S. refiners to begin to ramp up gasoline production for the summer driving season as seasonal maintenance to refiners ends. Closes: CLM4 -0.28 (-0.28%). RBM4 -0.03538 (-1.20%).