Live Index – Thu, 01 May 2014 Premarket

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up 0.08% and UK stocks are up +0.25% on signs of economic strength after the Apr UK manufacturing PMI grew more than expected and expanded at the fastest pace in 5 months. Gains in stocks were muted and most commodities fell after Chinese manufacturing activity expanded less than forecast last month. The rest of Europe is closed today for the Labour Day holiday. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +1.27%, Australia -0.73%, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan Singapore, South Korea and India are all closed for holidays. The situation in Ukraine remains tense after Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said that as many as 1,000 gunmen have seized buildings in more than ten cities in eastern Ukraine. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Jun crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) is down -0.49% at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.76% at a 3-week low. Jun gold GCM14 -0.91%) is down -0.83%. July copper (HGN14 +0.13%) is down -0.10%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is down -0.01% at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.06% at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01%. The British pound climbed to a 4-3/4 year high against the dollar after UK Apr manufacturing PMI beat expectations and UK Apr house prices rose at the fastest pace in 6-3/4 years. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.05%) are down -2.5 ticks.

The China Apr manufacturing PMI rose +0.1 to 50.4, less than expectations of +0.2 to 50.5.

Japan Apr vehicle sales dropped -11.4% y/y, the biggest decline in 9-months, as consumers stayed away after Japan raised the consumption tax by 3 percentage points to 8.0% on Apr 1.

UK Apr nationwide house prices rose +1.2% m/m and +10.9% y/y, more than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +9.8% y/y, with the +10.9% y/y increase the largest annual gain in 6-3/4 years.

UK Apr Markit PMI manufacturing rose +1.5 to 57.3, better than expectations of +0.1 to 55.4 and the fastest pace of expansion in 5 months.

UK Mar net consumer credit climbed 1.1 billion pounds, more than expectations of 0.6 billion pounds and the most in 1-1/2 years.

UK Mar mortgage approvals were 67,100, less than expectations of 72,000.

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a decline of -9,000 to 320,000, reversing part of last week’s +24,000 increase to 329,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show an increase of +20,000 to 2.700 million, reversing part of last week’s decline of -61,000 to 2.680 million. Today’s April ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a +0.6 point increase to 54.3, adding to the +0.5 point increase to 53.7 seen in March. Today’s March personal spending report is expected to show a solid increase of +0.6%, adding to the increase of +0.3% seen in February. Meanwhile, March personal income is expected to show an increase of +0.4%, adding to the +0.3% increase seen in February. Today’s March PCE deflator, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to rise slightly to +1.1% y/y from +0.9% in February. Meanwhile, today’s March core PCE deflator is expected to edge higher to +1.2% y/y from +1.1% in February. Today’s April total vehicle sales report is expected to ease to 16.20 million from 16.33 million in March.

There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today. Notable reports include MasterCard (consensus $ 0.72), Marathon Petroleum (1.06), PG&E (0.63), ConnocoPhillips (1.55), Textron (0.34), CME Group (0.83), Motorola Solutions (0.50), Exxon Mobil (1.88), Kellogg (0.97), Kraft Foods (0.76). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Linley Group Mobile Conference on Wed-Thu.

Viacom (VIAB +1.52%) reported Q2 EPS of $ 1.08, better than consensus of $ 1.05.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC -0.46%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, weaker than consensus of $ 1.06.

ConocoPhillips (COP -0.50%) reported Q1 EPS of $ 1.81, well above consensus of $ 1.55.

Con-way (CNW +0.93%) reported Q1 EPS of 20 cents, higher than consensus of 16 cents.

CBRE Group (CBG +0.95%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well above consensus of 17 cents.

Amdocs (DOX +1.37%) reported Q2 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 78 cents.

Weight Watchers (WTW -3.51%) reported Q1 EPS of 31 cents, over three times consensus of 9 cents.

Fortune Brands (FBHS -0.65%) reported Q1 EPS ex-items of 25 cents, well below consensus of 32 cents.

Western Digital (WDC +0.72%) reported Q3 EPS of $ 1.94, better than consensus of $ 1.88.

Equinix (EQIX +1.31%) reported Q1 EPS of 81 cents, higher than consensus of 72 cents.

Hologic (HOLX +0.10%) jumped over 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $ 1.37-$ 1.40 from $ 1.34 to $ 1.38, above Consensus of $ 1.37.

MetLife (MET +0.98%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $ 1.37, below consensus of $ 1.40.

Boyd Gaming (BYD +0.34%) reported a Q1 EPS loss of -4 cents, weaker than consensus of a 1 cent gain.

Whiting Petroleum (WLL -0.34%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $ 1.05, better than consensus of 97 cents.

Reuters reports that Merck (MRK -0.27%) is working with investment banks as it is looking to sell a “big portfolio of mature drugs.”

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 unch) this morning are up +1.50 points (+0.08%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +220,000 increase in the Apr ADP employment report, more than expectations of +210,000 and the most in 5 months, and (2) the +7.1 point gain in the April Chicago Apr manufacturing PMI to 63.0, more than expectations of +1.1 to 57.0 and the fastest pace of expansion in 6 months. Limiting gains was the +0.1% (q/q annualized) increase in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2% and the slowest pace of growth since Q4-2012. Closes: S&P 500 +0.30%, Dow Jones +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.22%.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.05%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday posted a 1-1/2 week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the +0.3% increase in the Q1 employment cost index, less than expectations of +0.5% and the slowest pace of increase in 2-1/2 years, and (2) the slower-than-expected increase in U.S. Q1 GDP of +0.1% (q/q annualized), which fueled ideas the Fed will not taper QE3 any faster than it is now. Closes: TYM4 +13.50, FVM4 +9.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is down -0.002 (-0.01%) at a 2-1/2 week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0009 (+0.06%) at a 2-1/2 week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.01 (+0.01%). The dollar index on Wednesday fell to a 2-week low and closed lower: Dollar index -0.334 (-0.42%), EUR/USD +0.0055 (+0.40%), USD/JPY -0.403 (-0.39%). Bearish factors for the dollar included (1) U.S. economic growth concerns after Q1 GDP expanded well below expectations, and (2) strength in EUR/USD which rebounded from a 3-week low and closed higher on speculation the ECB will refrain from expanding its stimulus measures when it meets next week.

Jun WTI crude oil (CLM14 -0.67%) this morning is down -49 cents (-0.49%) at a 4-week low. Jun gasoline (RBM14 -0.79%) is down -0.0224 (-0.76%) at a 3-week low. Jun crude and gasoline prices on Wed closed lower with Jun crude at a 4-week low and Jun gasoline at a 3-week low. Bearish factors included (1) the +0.1% (q/q annualized) gain in U.S. Q1 GDP, weaker than expectations of +1.2%, (2) the +1.698 million bbl increase in EIA crude inventories to 399.357 million bbl, the most since weekly EIA data began in 1982 and monthly government data began in 1920, and (3) the unexpected +1.56 million bbl increase in EIA gasoline supplies, more than expectations for a -425,000 bbl draw. Closes: CLM4 -1.54 (-1.52%). RBM4 -0.0436 (-1.45%).