Live Index – Tue, 25 Mar 2014 Premarket

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.32%) this morning are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.85% ahead of U.S. data later today on consumer confidence, home prices and new home sales. Gains in European stocks were muted after a gauge of German investor confidence fell for the first time in five months. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.36%, Hong Kong -0.52%. China -0.10%, Taiwan +0.98%, Australia -0.19%, Singapore -0.25%, South Korea -0.30%, India closed for holiday. China’s Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 1-month high on speculation the Chinese government will take steps to support economic growth. Commodity prices are mixed. May crude oil (CLK14 +0.57%) is up +0.37%. May gasoline (RBK14 +0.48%) is up +0.44%. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.28%) is up +0.34%. May copper (HGK14 +1.49%) is up +1.46%. Agriculture and livestock prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.16%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 unch) are up +1.5 ticks.

The German Mar IFO business climate fell -0.6 to 110.7, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.4 to 110.9. The Mar IFO current assessment rose +0.8 to 115.2, a bigger increase than expectations of +0.1 to 114.5 and the highest in 1-3/4 years. Mar IFO expectations fell -1.9 to 106.4, a bigger decline than expectations of -0.6 to 107.7.

UK Feb CPI rose +0.5% m/m and +1.7% y/y, right on expectations, with the +1.7% y/y increase the smallest annual gain in 4-1/3 years. Feb core CPI gained +1.7% y/y, higher than expectations of unch at +1.6 y/y.

UK Feb RPI rose +0.6% m/m and +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +2.6% y/y. Feb RPI ex-mortgage interest payments rose +2.7% y/y, higher than expectations of +2.6% y/y.

UK Feb PPI input prices fell -0.4% m/m and -5.7% y/y, bigger declines than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -5.3% y/y, with the -5.7% y/y decline the largest annual fall in 4-1/3 years.

UK Feb PPI output prices were unch m/m and +0.5% y/y, less than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.7% y/y. Feb PPI output core prices rose +0.1% m/m and +1.1% y/y, close to expectations of unch m/m and +1.1% y/y.

Today’s Feb new home sales report is expected to show a decline of -4.9% to 445,000, reversing part of January’s surprise +9.6% increase to a 5-1/2 year high of 468,000. Today’s Jan CaseShiller composite-20 home price index report is expected to show an increase of +0.6% m/m while the Jan FHFA house price index report is expected to show an increase of +0.5% m/m. Today’s March U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a +0.4 point increase to 78.5, reversing part of the -1.3 point drop to 78.1 seen in February. Today’s March Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to show a +10 point increase to 4, reversing more than one-half of the sharp -18 point drop to -6 seen in February.

There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today: Carnival (consensus -0.08), McCormick (0.58), HD Supply (-0.03), Walgreen (0.93), PVH Corp (1.42). Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Barclays Emerging Payments Forum on Mon-Tue, TAG Spring Consumer Conference on Tue, Gastech Conference & Exhibition on Mon-Wed, BB&T Capital Markets Commercial & Industrial Conference on Wed, CIBC Retail and Consumer Conference on Wed, JPMorgan Insurance Conference on Wed, Oracle Storage Summit New York on Wed, Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu, and Jefferies Animal Health Day on Thu

BofA/Merrill added CSX (CSX -0.24%) to its top stock pick list for 2014.

Walgreens (WAG -0.68%) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 91 cents, below consensus of 93 cents.

AT&T (T +0.47%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at HSBC.

The NYT reports that General Motors (GM +0.37%) told its customers and families of accident victims that it did not have sufficient evidence to determine that there were defects in its cars, even after the company had definitive evidence of such a defect.

Arch Coal (ACI +3.08%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Jefferies.

Navistar (NAV +0.06%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at UBS.

KBR (KBR -0.98%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.

Domtar (UFS +0.08%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

RealD (RLD -3.39%) and Wanda Cinema Line Corporation announced an extended agreement to install an additional 780 RealD 3D Cinema Systems in China.

Integrated Core Strategies reported a 6% passive stake in Stone Energy (SGY +0.08%) .

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Brazil to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BBB’ with a stable outlook on its long-term credit rating.

PL Capital reported a 5.2% stake in Metro Bancorp (METR +0.98%) .

Disney (DIS -1.07%) has agreed to acquire Maker Studios for $ 500 million.

BioMarin (BMRN -0.30%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman.

Blackstone Holdings I reported a 6% passive stake in Ardmore Shipping (ASC -1.77%) .

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.32%) this morning are up +3.75 points (+0.20%). The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) the China Mar HSBC manufacturing PMI that unexpectedly weakened for the fifth straight month as it fell by -0.4 to an 8-month low of 48.1, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 48.7, and (2) concern the Ukraine crisis may escalate after Ukraine’s foreign minister said the risk of war is growing as Russia continues to mass troops along the Ukraine border. Closes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.98%.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 unch) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) supply pressures with $ 109 billion T-notes to be auctioned this week, and (2) negative carry-over from Fed Chair Yellen’s indication last Wednesday that the funds rate might be raised as soon as spring 2015. Closes: TYM4 -1.00, FVM4 -3.00.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.15%) this morning is up +0.079 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0022 (-0.16%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.02 (+0.02%). The dollar index on Monday closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from early losses and closed higher after the Bundesbank stated in its monthly report said that it sees a “substantial strengthening of the overall pace of economic expansion” in Q1 German economic growth. Closes: Dollar index -0.171 (-0.21%), EUR/USD +0.00461 (+0.33%), USD/JPY +0.004 (+0.01%).

May WTI crude oil (CLK14 +0.57%) this morning is up 37 cents (+0.37%) and May gasoline (RBK14 +0.48%) is up +0.0128 (+0.44%). May crude and gasoline prices on Monday settled mixed. Crude oil prices rose on concern that the closure of the Houston Ship Canal since Saturday due to an oil spill will disrupt refinery operations and lead to reduced production at refineries along the Gulf Coast. Bearish factors included global demand concerns after the Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to an 8-month low and the German manufacturing PMI slipped to its slowest pace in 4 months. Closes: CLK4 +0.14 (+0.14%). RBK4 -0.0139 (-0.48%).