Live Index – Mon, 24 Feb 2014 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.27%) this morning are up +0.18% and European stocks are up +0.08% after German Feb business confidence unexpectedly rose to a 2-1/2 year high. Gains in European stocks were limited as bank stocks fell after HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, slid 3.6% when it reported full-year pretax profit that missed consensus. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -0.19%, Hong Kong -0.80%, China -2.20%, Taiwan -0.48%, Australia +0.03%, Singapore +0.19%, South Korea -0.47%, India +0.53%. The Shanghai Stock Index tumbled to a 2-week low and pulled down other Asian equity markets on concerns over economic growth after Shanghai Securities News reported that China’s Industrial Bank and other unidentified lenders have curbed loans to the property sector and related industries such as steel and cement. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ14 +0.07%) is down -0.12%. Apr gasoline (RBJ14 -0.34%) is down -0.43%. Apr natural gas (NGJ14 +3.01%) is up +3.31% at a contract high and nearest-futures Mar natural gas surged to a 5-year high as sub-zero cold is forecast to return to the central and northeastern U.S. this week. Apr gold (GCJ14 +0.67%) is up +0.70% at a 3-3/4 month high. March copper (HGH14 -1.56%) is down -1.56% at a 1-week low on concern Chinese copper demand may slow after a report said that some Chinese banks curbed real-estate lending. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) is down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12% as it erased an early advance when ECB President Draghi said the ECB is ready to add to stimulus if the outlook for prices deteriorates. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.03%. March T-note prices (ZNH14 -0.05%) are up +1 tick.

The German Feb IFO business climate unexpectedly rose +0.7 to a 2-1/2 year high of 111.3, higher than expectations of -0.1 to 110.5. The Feb IFO current assessment rose +2.0 to 114.4, better than expectations of +0.4 to 112.8 and the highest in 1-3/4 years. The Feb IFO expectations fell -0.6 to 108.3, better than expectations of -0.8 to 108.1.

Eurozone Jan CPI was revised upward to +0.8% y/y from the originally reported +0.7% y/y and the core Jan CPI was left unrevised at +0.8% y/y.

ECB President Draghi said the ECB is ready to add to stimulus if the outlook for prices deteriorates when he said “We are aware of the risks and the Governing Council is willing and ready to take any action in case these risks were to gain strength.”

This week’s U.S. economic calendar is busy. The key event on this week’s calendar with be Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony on Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee. The Treasury will sell 2, 5 and 7-year notes this week as well as 2-year floating rate notes. There are 47 of the S&P 500 companies that will report earnings this week. There are 5 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Frontier Communications (consensus $ 0.06), ONEOK (0.53), EOG Resources (1.93), Vornado Realty Trust (-0.29), and Tenet Healthcare (0.32).

Equity conferences this week include: Bloomberg Energy 2020 on Mon, GSMA Mobile World Congress on Mon, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Tech Tour on Mon, RSA Conference on Mon, BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining Conference on Mon-Tue, JP Morgan Emerging Markets Corporate Conference on Mon-Tue, HIMSS Conference on Mon-Tue, Morgan Stanley Houston Energy Summit on Tue, J. P. Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference on Mon-Wed, RBC Capital Markets Healthcare Conference on Mon-Wed, 10th Regulatory and Compliance Congress on Tue-Wed, Robert W. Baird Business Solutions Conference Tue-Wed, Crude By Rail 2014 on Tue-Wed, Super Return International 2014 on Tue-Wed, Gabelli & Co Inc Industrial Flow & Infrastructure Conference on Wed, RBC Capital Markets Global Health Care Conference on Wed, Alembic Global Advisors Fourth Annual Global Chemical Conference on Wed, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods Boston Bank Conference on Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Consumer Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture Conference on Wed-Thu, Simmons Energy Conference on Thu, and Stifel Industrials Conference on Thu.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -1.32%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Argus.

UnitedHealth (UNH +0.45%) fell 1.8% and Humana (HUM +0.57%) slipped 4.5% in pre-market trading after it was reported late Friday after the markets closed that the U.S. government has proposed a cut in payments made under the Medicare Advantage program by -3.5% for 2015.

Comcast (CMCSA -1.37%) rose 1.5% in pre-market trading after people familiar with the matter said Netflix (NFLX -0.63%) agreed to pay for direct access to Comcast’s broadband network.

Marriott (MAR +1.39%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Raymond James.

U.S. Steel (X -0.44%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at KeyBanc.

Apple (AAPL -1.11%) and Amazon.com (AMZN -0.87%) were both downgraded to ‘Strong Sell’ from ‘Sell’ at Standpoint Research.

Forest Labs (FRX -0.43%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Credit Suisse.

Nordstrom (JWN -0.34%) upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underweight’ at Atlantic Equities.

Kindred Healthcare (KND +1.02%) was upgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Underperform’ at Wells Fargo.

Consolidated Edison (ED -0.02%) was upgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Underperform’ at Jefferies.

CIBC (CM -0.33%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Citigroup.

Citadel Advisors reports 5.4% passive stake in Veeva (VEEV -2.29%) .

Moody’s Investors Service late Friday upgraded Spain’s government bond rating to Baa2 from Baa3 with a positive outlook.

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.27%) this morning are up +3.25 points (+0.18%). The S&P 500 on Friday opened higher on carry-over support from a rally in other global stock markets after a draft communique from the G-20 weekend meeting bolstered economic optimism when it stated that G-20 finance chiefs will back the withdrawal of stimulus in advanced economies and commit to “concrete actions” to boost economic growth. Stocks gave up their gains and closed lower, however, after U.S. Jan existing home sales fell -5.1% to a 1-1/2 year low of 4.62 million, a bigger decline than expectations of -4.1% to 4.67 million. Closes: S&P 500 -0.19%, Dow Jones -0.19%, Nasdaq 100 -0.25%.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH14 -0.05%) this morning are up +1 tick. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Friday fell to a 1-week low as global stocks rallied on increased economic optimism. T-note prices recovered their losses and closed higher, however, after a slide in U.S. Jan existing home sales to a 1-1/2 year low dragged stock prices lower. Closes: TYH4 -7.50, FVH4 -4.50.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is down -0.006 (-0.01%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0017 (-0.12%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.03 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Friday closed slightly lower due to the bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. Jan existing home sales to a 1-1/2 year low. USD/JPY rose to a 3-week high as the yen weakened after BOJ Governor Kuroda said it is “too early” for a detailed discussion of exiting QE as Japan is only halfway on path toward the BOJ’s 2% inflation target. Closes: Dollar index -0.049 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.00186 (+0.14%), USD/JPY +0.218 (+0.21%).

Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ14 +0.07%) this morning is down -12 cents (-0.12%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ14 -0.34%) is down -0.0129 (-0.43%). Apr crude and gasoline prices Friday closed lower. Bearish factors for crude included (1) weakness in stocks, which undercuts confidence in the economic outlook and energy demand, and (2) concern the economy is slowing after U.S. Jan existing home sales showed an unexpectedly large decline to a 1-1/2 year low. Declines were limited on speculation that colder-than-normal temperatures forecast across much of the northern half of the U.S. for the next 2 weeks will boost demand for heating fuel. Closes: CLJ4 -0.55 (-0.54%), RBJ4 -0.0180 (-0.60%).