Live Index – Tue, 31 May 2016 Premarket

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.11%)are up +0.04% at a 1-1/4 month high on optimism that a strengthening U.S. economy could handle another 25 bp rate hike from the Fed. Fed Chair Yellen said Friday afternoon that an improving economy would probably warrant another rate increase “in the coming months.” Strength in crude oil prices is lifting energy producers, while European stocks are down -0.33% as automakers declined after Volkswagen dropped over 3% when it reported an 86% plunge in quarterly profit due to its emissions-cheating scandal. European stocks were also undercut after an unexpected decline in German Apr retail sales. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.98%, Hong Kong +0.90%, China +3.34%, Taiwan unch, Australia -0.54%, Singapore -0.20%, South Korea +0.79%, India -0.22%. China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3-week high after Goldman Sachs said that it was likely that the stocks in the Shanghai Composite would be included in MSCI Inc.’s global benchmark indexes. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 1-month high on optimism the Japanese government will delay an increase in the sales tax after senior officials from Prime Minister Abe’s ruling party and its coalition partner said that Prime Minister Abe wants to put off a planned national sale tax increase for 2-1/2 years.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) is up +0.09%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.13%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.04%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.24%) are down -12.5 ticks.

German Apr retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.9% m/m.

The Eurozone May CPI estimate fell -0.1% y/y, right on expectations. The May core CPI rose +0.8% y/y, right on expectations.

The Eurozone Apr unemployment rate was unch at 10.2%, right on expectations.

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Apr personal spending (expected +0.7%, Mar +0.1%) and Apr personal income (expected +0.4%, Mar +0.4%), (2) Apr PCE deflator expected (+0.3% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Mar +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y) and Apr core PCE deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y), (3) S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index (expected +0.7% m/m and +5.06% y/y, Feb +0.66% m/m and +5.38% y/y), (4) May Chicago PMI (expected +0.1 to 50.5, Apr -3.2 to 50.4), (5) May Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence (expected +2.1 to 96.3, Apr -1.9 to 94.2), (6) May Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +5.9 to -8.0, Apr -13.9), (7) USDA weekly grain export inspections, and (8) USDA Weekly Crop Progress.

There are 3 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Golar LNG (consensus -$ 0.42), Medtronic (1.26), Workday (-0.02).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: Cancer Preventation Pharmaceuticals (CPP).

Equity conferences this week include: Deutsche Bank Global Financial Services Investor Conference on Tue-Wed, BMO Capital Markets Energy & Power Conference on Wed, D. A. Davidson & Co Technology Forum on Wed, Stifel Dental & Veterinary Conference on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Technology Conference on Wed-Thu, Cowen and Company Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on Wed-Thu, RBC Capital Markets Consumer & Retail Conference on Wed-Thu, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference on Wed-Fri, Credit Suisse Engineering & Construction Conference on Thu, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Asset Management Conference on Thu, American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Meeting on Fri.

Celator Pharmaceuticals (CPXX +0.17%) soared over 70% in pre-market trading after it agreed to a $ 1.5 billion takeover offer from Jazz Pharmaceuticals.

Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.60%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Berenberg.

Marathon Oil (MRO -2.05%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at Piper Jaffray.

Deere & Co. (DE +0.29%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at UBS with a 12-month price target of $ 94.

Micron (MU +3.01%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at Robert Baird.

Dril-Quip (DRQ +1.12%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Accumulate’ at KLR Group with a price target of $ 70.

Signature Bank/New York (SBNY +0.85%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at Piper Jaffray with a 12-month price target of $ 146.

TransDigm Group (TDG +0.47%) jumped 4% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Baxalta in the S&P 500 after the close of trading Thursday, June 2.

Brocade (BRCD +0.23%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace MDC Holdings in the MidCap 400 after the close of trading on Tuesday, May 31.

The FDA approved Zinbryta, made by Biogen (BIIB +0.28%) and Abbvie (ABBV +1.31%) , for the treatment of adults with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis.

Reuters reports that Williams Cos (WMB +3.22%) has informed Energy Transfer Equity ETE that it is open to considering a new offer that would replace the $ 6 billion portion of the deal with shares in the acquisition vehicle that Energy Transfer will create.

Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR +1.43%) slumped 10% in after-hours trading after it said a criminal probe against the company was started by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.11%) this morning up +0.75 of a point (+0.04%) at a 1-1/4 month high. Friday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.43%, Dow Jones +0.25%, Nasdaq +0.55%. The S&P 500 Friday rallied to a 1-1/4 month high and closed higher on the upward revision to U.S. Q1 GDP to +0.8% from +0.5% and on optimism that the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle further Fed rate hikes. Stocks were undercut by the -1.1 point decline in final-May University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index to 94.7, weaker than expectations of -0.4 to 95.4.

June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.24%) this morning are down -12.5 ticks. Friday’s closes: TYM6 -3.50, FVM6 -3.00. Jun T-notes on Friday closed lower on the upward revision to U.S. Q1 GDP to +0.8% from +0.5%, hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said a Fed rate hike in coming months may be “appropriate,” and reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.01%) this morning is up +0.085 (+0.09%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0014 (+0.13%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.05 (-0.04%). Friday’s closes: Dollar Index +0.353 (+0.37%), EUR/USD -0.0079 (-0.71%), USD/JPY +0.55 (+0.50%). The dollar index on Friday rallied to a 2-month high and closed higher on the upward revision in U.S. Q1 GDP to +0.8% from +0.5% and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said a Fed rate hike in coming months may be “appropriate.” The dollar was also boosted by weakness in EUR/USD which tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low on divergent central bank policies with the Fed expected to further tighten monetary policy while the ECB maintains or even expands its monetary policy.

July WTI crude oil (CLN16 +0.47%) this morning is up +14 cents (+0.28%). July gasoline (RBN16 -0.90%) is down -0.0192 (-1.17%). Friday’s closes: CLN6 -0.15 (-0.30%), RBN6 +0.0111 (+0.68%). July crude oil and gasoline prices on Friday settled mixed as July gasoline rebounded from a 1-week low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 2-month high and by the restart of oil-sands facilities in Alberta as wildfire risks abated. Gasoline prices were boosted by signs of stronger demand as the AAA estimates that 38 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more this Memorial holiday weekend, up +2.2% y/y and the second-highest ever.