Live Index – Fri, 06 May 2016 Premarket

Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.24%) are down -0.21% and European stocks are down -1.04%, both at 3-week lows, as the markets await this morning’s monthly U.S. payroll data. The employment report could give guidance as to when the Fed may raise interest rates again. Currently, the market is pricing in only a 10% chance of a Fed rate hike at the Jun FOMC meeting, with Feb 2017 the first month with at least a 50% chance of an increase. Losses in miners and energy producing are leading the overall market lower with crude oil down -0.70% and copper HGN16 -0.12%) down -0.14% at a 2-week low. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.25%, Hong Kong -1.66%, China -2.82%, Taiwan -0.26%, Australia +0.25%, Singapore -1.34%, South Korea closed for holiday, India -0.13%. Concerns that weak growth in China that may lessen its demand for commodities pushed raw-material stocks lower and drug China’s Shanghai Composite down to a 2-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) is down -0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.20%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is down -0.28%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.05%) are up +1.5 ticks.

Speaking Thursday night at a conference at Stanford University, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said “If we get another shock, we have a list of things we can do; we could do QE4, we could do forward guidance again,” and that negative rates are “at the bottom of the list.”

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said he’s “very much at the moment on the fence” as to whether to support an interest rate increase at the Jun FOMC meeting. He added, the employment report Friday will be “important” and a monthly jobs figure of around “200,000 as a threshold is a good way to kind of organize your thinking” and “I’d be pleased if we’re above that.”

Dallas Fed President Kaplan said Jun is a live meeting for an interest-rate increase and he’ll be “watching for evidence” of further gains in U.S. employment and inflation heading higher before a rate hike.

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Apr non-farm payrolls (expected +200,000, Mar +215,000) and Apr unemployment rate (expected -0.1 to 4.9%, Mar +0.1 to 5.0%), (2) Apr avg hourly earnings (expected +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, Mar +0.3% m/m and +2.3% y/y) and Apr avg weekly hours all-employees (expected +0.1 to 34.5 hours, Mar 34.4 hours), (3) Mar consumer credit (expected +$ 16.0 billion, Feb +$ 17.217 billion).

There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Exelon (consensus $ 0.68), Weyerhaeuser (0.21), DENTSPLY SIRONA (0.63), Cognizant Technology (0.79), Willis Tower Watson (2.88), Cigna (2.16).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences today: none.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI +1.84%) gained 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 23 cents, well above consensus of 12 cents, and then raised guidance on 2016 adjusted EPS to $ 1.78 from a February 11 estimate of $ 1.75

Fluor (FLR +0.85%) dropped over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS of 74 cents, weaker than consensus of 85 cents, and then lowered guidance on 2016 EPS to $ 3.25-$ 3.65 from a February 18 estimate of $ 3.50-$ 4.00.

Yelp (YELP -1.02%) jumped over 10% in pre-market trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 8 cents, four times consensus of 2 cents, and then raised guidance on 2016 net revenue to $ 690 million-$ 702 million from a February 8 estimate of $ 685 million-$ 700 million.

Herbalife Ltd. (HLF +0.71%) surged 14% in after-hours trading after it said it is in late-stage talks, which include litigation or settlement, to resolve a FTC probe into whether the company is a pyramid scheme.

Square (SQ -2.54%) slumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it expressed concerns about financing for its small-business customer-loan program and said it faced “challenging credit market conditions” and cited delays signing new investors to help back its lending business.

Post Holdings (POST +0.50%) jumped over 6% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on full-year adjusted Ebitda to $ 893 million-$ 913 million from a February 4 estimate of $ 810 million-$ 840 million.

Cerner (CERN -0.47%) fell over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 53 cents, right on consensus, but said it sees Q2 adjusted EPS of 56 cents-58 cents. below consensus of 58 cents.

Arista Networks (ANET +1.65%) gained 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 68 cents, higher than consensus of 60 cents.

Depomed (DEPO -2.36%) slid over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 12 cents, weaker than consensus of 17 cents.

FireEye (FEYE -1.30%) dropped over 6% in after-hours trading after it forecast a Q2 adjusted EPS loss of -38 cents to -40 cents, a wider loss than consensus of -36 cents.

Air Lease (AL -0.03%) climbed over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $ 1.38, well above consensus of 77 cents.

MercadoLibre (MELI +0.42%) rose over 5% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 68 cents, higher than consensus of 54 cents.

Imperva (IMPV +0.44%) sank 20% in after-hours trading after it reported a Q1 loss of -25 cents, a small decline than consensus of -28 cents, but said it sees Q2 revenue of $ 65.5 million-$ 66.5 million, weaker than consensus of $ 70.2 million.

Endo International PMC (ENDP -2.85%) plunged 25% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS to $ 4.50-$ 4.80 from a March 17 estimate of $ 5.85-$ 6.20, well below consensus of $ 5.64.

Bankrate (RATE +1.05%) surged 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 12 cents, above consensus of 8 cents, and said it sees Q2 revenue of $ 94 million-$ 98 million, above the midpoint of consensus of $ 87.3 million.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 -0.24%) this morning are down -4.25 points (-0.21%) at a 3-week low. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed little changed: S&P 500 -0.02%, Dow Jones +0.05%, Nasdaq -0.06%. Bullish factors included (1) strength in energy producing stocks as the price of crude oil rose over 1%, and (2) short-covering and position squaring ahead of Friday’s all-important monthly U.S. payrolls report. Gains in stocks were limited on bearish factors that included (1) negative carryover from a sell-off in European stocks to a 3-week low, and (2) the +17,00 increase in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims, more than expectations of +3,000 to 260,000 and a 5-week high.

June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.05%) this morning are up +1.5 ticks. Jun T-notes on Thursday posted a 2-1/2 week high and closed higher: TYM6 +9.50, FVM6 +5.00. Bullish factors included (1) carryover support from a rally in German bunds to a 2-week high on speculation the ECB may expand stimulus after the ECB said in its monthly bulletin that it “will do everything within its mandate” to ensure that the low inflation environment does not become entrenched, and (2) the larger-than-expected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 5-week high.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.16%) this morning is down -0.170 (-0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0023 (+0.20%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.30 (-0.28%). The dollar index on Thursday closed higher: Dollar Index +0.601 (+0.64%), EUR/USD -0.0082 (-0.71%), USD/JPY +0.25 (+0.23%). Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD after the ECB in its monthly bulletin said that it will act “by using all the instruments available within its mandate” to ensure that the low inflation environment does not become entrenched, and (2) the rally in USD/JPY as stronger equities reduced the safe-haven demand for the yen.

June WTI crude oil (CLM16 -0.72%) this morning is down -31 cents (-0.70%). June gasoline (RBM16 +0.25%) is up +0.0054 (+0.36%). Jun crude oil and gasoline on Thursday closed higher: CLM6 +0.54 (+1.23%), RBM6 +0.0048 (+0.32%). Bullish factors included (1) positive carryover from Wednesday’s EIA data that showed a -1.3% drop in U.S. crude production in the week of Apr 29 to a 1-1/2 year low of 8.28 million bpd, and (2) concerns over smaller crude production from Canada after a wildfire in Alberta forced Shell, Syncrude Canada and Connacher to all reduce their crude output.