U.S. dollar net long bets rise, bitcoin posts largest net long since CME launch
Speculators’ net long positioning on the U.S. dollar rose in the latest week, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.
The value of the net long dollar position climbed to $13.92 billion for the week ended April 26, from $12.91 billion the previous week. This week’s U.S. dollar net long positioning was the largest since early April, and the first increase in four weeks.
The dollar gained sharply in the month of April, surging nearly 5% for its largest monthly percentage gain since January 2015.
“There remain some rather surprising aspects of the data, however, which – at the very least – suggest that the U.S. dollar’s bull move may have further to run because it does not appear as if investors have fully participated in the dollar’s near 5% rally over the past month,” said Scotiabank in a report after the release of the CFTC data.
The greenback has benefited from safe-haven bids in the midst of the war in Ukraine, lifted as well by higher U.S. interest rates as the Federal Reserve embarks on an aggressive rate tightening cycle to stamp out inflation.
Data also showed euro net longs fell in the latest week to 22,201 contracts, which Scotiabank said was a surprise given the geopolitical and monetary policy risks in the euro zone. The single European currency dropped 4.7% for the month of April, its worst monthly performance since January 2015.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin futures posted their largest net long position since the contract was launched in 2018. For the week of April 26, net longs in bitcoin rose to 412 contracts, compared with net shorts of 194 in the previous week, CFTC data showed.
Bitcoin has stabilized within the $37,000-$40,000 range, with the Ukraine war, soaring inflation, and Fed rate hikes as backdrop. The world’s largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization has behaved more like a risk asset.
So far this year, bitcoin has fallen roughly 17% versus the dollar. It was last down 3.1% at $38,532.
