Dollar edges up in steady markets before central bank meetings
The U.S. dollar edged up on Tuesday in narrow-range trading as markets awaited news from upcoming central bank meetings that might spark volatility.
After a report showed that U.S. consumers were more confident about the economy than expected, the dollar index rose modestly and was up 0.1% at 93.9280 at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
The greenback mostly hovered around a point midway between its one-year high reached earlier this month and the one-month low touched early on Monday.
Analysts said the dollar might continue to hold steady pending a slew of central bank meetings and economic data that could shift views on interest rates, inflation and growth rates.
Yields on 10-year U.S. and German government securities also stayed in narrow ranges before the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note slipped to 1.6185% in the afternoon in New York.
“The markets are just pausing right now,” said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet.com.
The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan convene on Thursday. Next week brings meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Norway’s Norges Bank.
The euro was down 0.1% at $1.1597. The euro has been weakened recently by expectations that the ECB will take a dovish stance when it meets. Doing so would come in the face of news on Tuesday that inflation expectations for the euro zone among bond investors had reached a seven-year high above 2.07%.
Bigger currency movements came from the British pound, the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen.
Sterling rose to more than $1.38 after British retailers reported stronger-than-expected sales in October, affirming the prospect of higher rates. The pound then slipped back and was flat for the day at $1.3764.
The Aussie, which tends to move with commodity prices, gained 0.2% to $0.7506. Last week, it traded above $0.75 for the first time since July.
The U.S. dollar rose 0.4% against the Japanese yen, with the pair at 114.1400, below the four-year high of 114.695 reached last week.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its massive stimulus program and slash this year’s inflation forecast when it meets on Thursday, showing again that it has no intention of following other central banks in backing away from pandemic policies.
The Canadian dollar gained slightly on the greenback as oil prices rose but was held back by the approaching Bank of Canada meeting.
The Bank of Canada is expected to raise its inflation forecast and to largely end stimulus from its pandemic-era bond-buying program.
So far in 2021, energy-exporting currencies whose central banks are preparing to tighten – such as the Canadian dollar or Norwegian crown – have outperformed, ING strategists noted.
Bitcoin was down 1% at $62,343 at 1903 GMT.
