Live Index – Thu, 19 Feb 2015 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.19%) this morning are down -0.07% due to weakness in energy producers as crude oil fell, while European stocks are up +0.46% at a 6-1/2 year high after the Greek government submitted a request to extend the availability of bailout funds for 6 months. Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to assess the request later today and if they see room for an agreement the finance ministers will meet tomorrow. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.36%, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea closed for holiday, Australia -0.19%, India +0.48%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 14-3/4 year high on upbeat trade data after Japan Jan exports rose by the most in 14 months. Commodity prices are mixed. Mar crude oil (CLH15 -3.93%) is down -3.62% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -2.04%) is down -1.85% at a 1-week low ahead of weekly EIA data that may show U.S. crude stockpiles rose for a sixth week to a record high. Apr gold (GCJ15 +1.74%) is up +1.48%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.42%) is down -0.23%. Agriculture prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.05%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.05%) are down -3 ticks.

The Japan Jan trade balance widened to a -1.177 trillion yen deficit, bigger than expectations of -1.681 trillion yen and the largest deficit in 10 months. Jan exports rose +17.0% y/y, better than expectations of +13.5% y/y and the biggest increase in 14 months. Jan imports fell -9.0% y/y, more than expectations of -4.9% y/y and the biggest decline in 5 years.

Japan Jan nationwide department store sales fell -2.8% y/y, the tenth consecutive month sales have declined.

UK Feb CBI trends total orders rose +6 to 10, better than expectations of 2 to 6 and the highest in 6 months. Feb CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly rose +14 to 8, more than expectations of -1 to -7 and the highest in 10 months.

Today’s initial claims report is expected to show a -14,000 decline to 290,000. Today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a small +6,000 rise to 2.360 million after last week’s -51,000 decline to 2.354 million. Today’s Feb Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey is expected to show a +2.7 point increase to 9.0, stabilizing after January’s -18.0 point plunge to 6.3. Today’s Jan leading indicators index is expected to show a decent increase of +0.3%, adding to December’s strong increase of +0.5%.

There are 18 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today with notable reports including: Wal-Mart (consensus $ 1.54), Hormel Foods (0.64), Discovery Communications (0.45), Priceline (10.05), Newmont Mining (0.12), Consolidated Edison (0.55), Nordstrom (1.35). Equity conferences this week include: Consumer Analysts Group of New York Conference on Tue-Thu, and Barclays Industrial Select Conference on Wed-Thu.

Halliburton (HAL -1.07%) is down 2% and Exxon Mobil (XOM -2.19%) slid over 1% in pre-market trading as crude oil prices fell.

Hormel Foods (HRL +0.77%) reported Q1 EPS of 69 cents, well above consensus of 64 cents.

Priceline.com (PCLN +0.18%) reported Q4 EPS of $ 10.85, higher than consensus of $ 10.05.

Southwest Airlines (LUV +2.25%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at BofA/Merril Lynch with a price target of $ 52.

Regeneron (REGN +0.40%) reported positive results for its Eylea injection in patients with diabetic macular edema.

EOG Resources (EOG -1.22%) reported Q4 EPS of 79 cents, well below consensus of $ 1.02.

Marathon Oil (MRO -2.06%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 0, less than consensus of 3 cents.

Sunoco Logistics (SXL +1.63%) reported a Q4 EPS loss of -80 cents, well below consensus of a 37 cent profit.

Avis Budget (CAR -0.57%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of 23 cents, above consensus of 20 cents.

Marriott (MAR +0.20%) reported Q4 EPS of 68 cents, higher than consensus of 65 cents.

Convergys (CVG +0.05%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 52 cents, better than consensus of 44 cents.

Synopsys (SNPS +0.94%) reported Q1 EPS of 80 cents, well above consensus of 62 cents.

Fidelity National (FNF -1.25%) reported Q4 EPS of 50 cents, higher than consensus of 47 cents.

Williams (WMB -1.95%) reported Q4 EPS of 26 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents.

ARRIS (ARRS +5.10%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, well above consensus of 61 cents.

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 -0.19%) this morning are down -1.50 points (-0.07%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.03%, Dow Jones -0.10%, Nasdaq +0.13%. Bearish factors included (1) the -2.0% decline in U.S. Jan housing starts to 1.065 million, weaker than expectations of -1.7% to 1.070 million, and (2) the +0.2% increase in U.S. Jan industrial production, weaker than expectations of +0.3%. Stocks recovered from their worst levels after the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting minutes signaled policy makers may be inclined to keep interest rates lower for longer amid risks facing the economy.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH15 -0.05%) this morning are down -3 ticks. Mar 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday rebounded from a 1-1/4 month low and closed higher. Closes: TYH5 +24.50, FVH5 +16.75. Bullish factors included (1) a lack of inflation at the wholesale level after the U.S. Jan final-demand PPI index fell -0.8% m/m, the largest monthly decline since the data series began in 2009, and (2) the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting minutes stating that policy makers were inclined to keep the Fed funds rate near zero “for a longer time.”

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) this morning is unchanged. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0006 (-0.05%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22 (+0.19%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.137 (+0.15%), EUR/USD -0.00138 (-0.12%), USD/JPY -0.451 (-0.38%). A bullish factor for the dollar was a lack of inflation pressures after the Jan PPI final-demand fell more than expected. The dollar fell back from it best levels after the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting minutes signaled that Fed members may be inclined to delay raising interest rates due to risks facing the economy.

Mar WTI crude oil (CLH15 -3.93%) this morning is down -$ 1.89 a barrel (-3.62%) and Mar gasoline (RBH15 -2.04%) is down -0.0291 (-1.85%) at a 1-week low. Mar crude and Mar gasoline on Wednesday closed lower: CLH5 -1.39 (-2.60%), RBH5 -0.0311 (-1.96%). Negative factors included (1) the stronger dollar, and (2) expectations that Thursday’s weekly EIA data will show crude supplies rose +3.0 million bbl to a record high of 420 million bbl.