Live Index – Thu, 13 Mar 2014 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.15%) this morning are up +0.19% and European stocks are up +0.13% ahead of U.S. Feb retail sales data later this morning that is expected to show a rebound from Jan. Asian stocks closed mixed as weaker-than-expected Chinese data on retail sales and industrial production signal an economic slowdown: Japan -0.10%, Hong Kong -0.67%, China +1.24%, Taiwan +0.73%, Australia +0.53%, Singapore -0.52%, South Korea -0.01%, India -0.37%. China retail sales last month posted the smallest increase in 9-years and industrial production rose at the slowest pace in 4-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mixed. Apr crude oil (CLJ14 +0.44%) is up +0.31%. Apr gasoline (RBJ14 +0.03%) is down -0.12%. Apr gold (GCJ14 -0.07%) is up +0.07% at a 6-month high as the dollar index fell to a 4-1/2 month low, along with increased safe-haven demand from the Ukraine crisis. May copper (HGK14 -0.35%) is down -0.30%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.34%) is down -0.32% at a 4-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.37% at a 2-1/3 year high on diminished prospects for the ECB expanding its stimulus measures after ECB Executive Board member Praet said additional liquidity is not needed. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.16%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.04%) are down -1.5 ticks.

China Feb industrial production rose +8.6% year-to-date y/y, less than expectations of +9.5% year-to-date y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 4-1/2 years.

China Feb retail sales rose +11.8% year-to-date y/y, weaker than expectations of +13.5% year-to-date y/y and the smallest increase in 9-years.

The UK Feb RICS house price balance slid to 45%, less than expectations of 52%.

Japan Jan machine orders rose +13.4% m/m, better than expectations of +7.1% m/m and the largest monthly gain in 10-months. On a year-over-year basis, Jan machine orders jumped +23.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of +18.9% y/y and the most in 3-1/3 years.

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +7,000 to 330,000, reversing part of last week’s fairly large -26,000 decline to 323,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to show a small decline of -3,000 to 2.904 million, adding to last week’s decline of -8,000 to 2.907 million.
Retail sales – Today’s Feb retail sales report is expected to show a small increase of +0.2% and +0.1% ex-autos, improving a bit from January’s report of -0.4% and unchanged ex-autos. The Treasury today will sell $ 13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, concluding this week’s $ 64 billion coupon package. There are five of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Dollar General (consensus $ 1.01), Ulta Salon (1.07), Tahoe Resources (-0.09), American Homes 4 Rent (0.13), SeaWorld (-0.14).

Equity conferences this week include: Barclays Global Healthcare Conference on Tue-Thu, J.P. Morgan Gaming, Lodging, Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum on Wed-Thu,
UBS Global Consumer Conference on Wed-Thu, RBC Capital Market Consumer and Retail Conference on Wed-Thu, and Barclays Select Insurance Forum on Thu.

Genesco (GCO -0.37%) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $ 2.16, below consensus of $ 2.18.

National Oilwell (NOV -0.99%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at ISI Group.

Kirkland’s (KIRK +0.43%) gave guidance for 2014 EPS of 90 cents-$ 1.00, below consensus of $ 1.06.

Electronic Arts (EA +0.60%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at BofA/Merrill.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI +2.64%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at BofA/Merrill.

Jefferies kept its ‘Buy’ rating on Adobe (ADBE +0.87%) and raised its price target on the stock to $ 80 from $ 65.

Steelcase (SCS -0.47%) downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Longbow.

Dollar General (DG -0.19%) reported Q4 EPS of $ 1.01, right on expectations.

Northrop Grumman (NOC +0.53%) was awarded a $ 750 million government contract modification to a previously awarded contract for development of the Ballistic Missile Defense System’s Command, Control, Battle Management, and Communications Systems.

Williams-Sonoma (WSM -0.03%) climbed over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of $ 1.38, better than consensus of $ 1.36.

SAC Capital reported a 5.6% passive stake in Momenta Pharma (MNTA +3.31%) .

Vail Resorts (MTN +0.18%) reported Q2 EPS of $ 1.60, below consensus of $ 1.87.

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH14 +0.15%) this morning are up +3.50 points (+0.19%) . The S&P 500 on Wednesday slipped to a 1-week low but recovered and settled little changed after dovish comments from Fed Vice Chairman nominee Fischer who said the U.S. still needs expansionary monetary policy because “at 6.7%, the unemployment rate remains too high.” Negative factors for stocks were (1) concern a slowdown in the Chinese economy will drag down the global economy as well, and (2) concern about the crisis in Ukraine after Ukraine’s Prime Minister Tatsenyuk said Russia was massing troops near its border.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.04%) this morning are down -1.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed higher after the S&P 500 fell to a 1-week low, which boosted safe-haven demand for Treasuries. T-note prices extended their gains on strong demand for the Treasury’s $ 21 billion 10-year T-note auction that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.92, better than the 12-auction average of 2.68 and the highest in a year. Closes: TYM4 +9.00, FVM4 +4.75.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.34%) this morning is down -0.253 (-0.32%) at a 4-1/2 month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0051 (+0.37%) at a 2-1/3 year high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.16 (-0.16%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed lower after a rebound in the S&P 500 from a 1-week low reduced the safe-haven demand for the dollar. EUR/USD moved higher after ECB Executive Board member Coeure said that additional liquidity “is not needed today” as “we don’t see deflation in the Eurozone; we see it as a possible risk.” Closes: Dollar index -0.128 (-0.16%), EUR/USD +0.00428 (+0.31%), USD/JPY -0.258 (-0.25%).

Apr WTI crude oil (CLJ14 +0.44%) this morning is up +30 cents (+0.31%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ14 +0.03%) is down -0.0036 (-0.12%). Apr crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed lower with Apr crude at a 1-month low. Bearish factors included (1) a +6.18 million bbl jump in weekly EIA crude inventories, nearly triple expectations of +2.1 million bbl, and (2) the +1.3% increase in U.S. crude oil output in the week ended Mar 7 to 8.152 million bpd, a new 25-1/2 yr high. Losses in gasoline were limited after weekly EIA gasoline stockpiles tumbled -5.23 million bbl, nearly triple expectations of -1.8 million bbl. Closes: CLJ4 -2.04 (-2.04%), RBJ4 -0.0112 (-0.38%).