Goldman Closes Out Its Top Trade For 2015 Which Expires Out Of The Money

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Only Goldman can call the direction of the biggest FX trade of 2015 – namely the collapse in the EURUSD – and still have a complete lose on the trade.

Recall that exactly one year ago, Goldman revealed its top trade for 2015, namely betting on EUR/$ downside via a one-year EUR/$ put spread. From the bank:

On the surface this should have been a winning trade as the EURUSD currently trades well in the money. However, what happened in the interim is that Goldman, sensing the major payouts it would have to make to all those who put the trade on, decided to drag everyone deeped underwater and revised the strikes from 1.20-1.15 to 1.00-0.95.

Oops.

The result: Goldman’s top trade for 2015 just expired out of the money. From Goldman:

Actually, the loss is only for the clients. The winner? The counterparty which pocketed said premium from Goldman’s clients. Goldman Sachs.

It continues:

Considering Goldman’s track record of steamrolling muppets on every turn, the probability that the EURUSD will have surged into the 1.20 range or higher in 12 months is about 100%.