Fri Sep 12 2014
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Live Index – Fri, 12 Sep 2014 Premarket

PREMARKET WORLD NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 unch) this morning are down -0.01% and European stocks are up +0.02% as the markets await U.S. retail sales data for Aug later today. The ruble tumbled to a record low of 37.7265 per dollar and Russia threatened retaliation against the new round of sanctions imposed on it by the EU and U.S. The EU added 15 Russian companies and 24 people to the list of those affected by its sanctions against Russia, while President Obama said late Thursday that the U.S. will “deepen and broaden” its measure’s against Russia’s financial, energy and defense industries. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.25%, Hong Kong -0.27%, China +0.61%, Taiwan -1.07%, Australia -0.27%, Singapore -0.05%, South Korea +0.61%, India +0.24%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index climbed to an 8-month high as Japan’s exporters continue to garner strength from a slide in the yen, which dropped to a fresh 5-3/4 year low against the dollar today. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 +0.38%) is up +0.32%. Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.40%) is up +0.30%. Dec gold (GCZ14 +0.02%) is down -0.09% at a 7-1/2 month low on speculation the Fed is moving closer to raising interest rates. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.03%) is up +0.03%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.08% at a new 5-3/4 year high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.18%) are down -7.5 ticks at a fresh 5-week low on concern the Fed is closer to raising interest rates.

Eurozone Jul industrial production rose +1.0% m/m and +2.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m and +1.4% y/y.

Eurozone Q2 employment rose +0.2% q/q and +0.4% y/y, the largest increase in 3 years.

The German Aug wholesale price index fell -0.2% m/m, the largest monthly decline in 21 months. On an annual basis, Aug wholesale prices fell -0.6% y/y.

UK Jul construction output was unch m/m and up +2.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +3.2% y/y.

China Aug new yuan loans were 702.5 billion yuan, slightly more than expectations of 700.0 billion yuan. Aug M2 money supply rose +12.8% y/y, less than expectations of +13.5% y/y and the slowest pace of increase in 5 months.

Japan Jul industrial production was revised higher to +0.4% m/m and -0.7% y/y from the originally reported +0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

The market is expecting today’s Aug retail sales report to show an increase of +0.6% and +0.3% ex-autos, thus improving from July’s weak report of unchanged and +0.1% ex-autos. The market is expecting today’s preliminary-Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan to show a +0.8 point increase to 83.3, adding to the +0.7 point increase to 82.5 seen in August. The market is expecting today’s July business inventories report to show a solid increase of +0.4%, adding to the +0.4% increase seen in June. The market is expecting today’s Aug import price index to show a -1.0% m/m decline following the -0.2% m/m decline in July. There is one Russell 1000 company that reports earnings today: Darden Restaurants (consensus: $ 0.32).

Equity conferences the rest of this week include: Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference on Wed-Fri.

PREMARKET U.S. STOCKS

T-Mobile (TMUS -0.23%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Argus.

Genuine Parts (GPC -0.31%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at BB&T with a price target of $ 100.

Darden Restaurants (DRI +1.09%) reported Q1 EPS of 32 cents, right on expectations.

Netflix (NFLX -0.58%) was upgraded to ‘Equal Weight’ from ‘Underweight’ at Barclays.

Hertz (HTZ +0.18%) rose over 7% in after-hours trading after it said it reached agreement-in-principle with activist investor Carl Icahn to add three directors to the company’s board.

Acuity Brands (AYI +0.38%) was initiated with an ‘Outperform’ at Cowen with a price target of $ 142.

General Dynamics (GD -0.63%) was awarded a $ 234.23 million government contract for design agent, planning yard, engineering and technical support for active nuclear submarines.

Gabelli reported a 8.46% stake in Bolt Technology (BOLT +0.05%) .

Ulta Salon (ULTA +0.72%) jumped ove 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 94 cents, well above consensus of 83 cents.

Conversant (CNVR +0.15%) surged over 30% in after-hours trading after Alliance Data (ADS -2.45%) said it will acquire the company for $ 35 per share, or $ 2.3 billion.

MARKET COMMENTS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 unch) this morning are little changed, down -0.25 of a point (-0.01%). The S&P 500 Index on Thursday closed little changed: S&P 500 +0.09%, Dow Jones -0.12%, Nasdaq -0.06%. Negative factors included (1) carry-over weakness from a slide in European stocks on concern Eurozone economic growth could slow further after the EU said new economic sanctions against Russia will come into force on Friday, (2) the unexpected +11,000 increase in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims, more than expectations of a decline of -2,000 to 300,000, and (3) concern over escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East after President Obama vowed to destroy Islamic State extremists in Iraq and Syria.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.18%) this morning are down -7.5 ticks at a new 5-week low. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday closed slightly higher. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected +11,00 increase in U.S. weekly initial unemployment claims, and (2) an increase in geopolitical tensions that boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes after President Obama pledged a “relentless” campaign to destroy Islamic State extremists in Iraq and Syria. Closes: TYZ4 +0.50, FVZ4 +0.25.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.05%) this morning is unch. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0001 (+0.01%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.09 (+0.08%) at a new 5-3/4 year high. The dollar index on Thursday closed little changed. The main bearish factor for the dollar was the unexpected increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims. USD/JPY climbed to a new 5-3/4 year high on speculation of additional BOJ monetary stimulus after BOJ Governor Kuroda told Japanese Prime Minister Abe that the BOJ will do its “utmost” to achieve its inflation target. Gains in EUR/USD were limited after the IfW Kiel economic institute cut its 2014 German GDP estimate to +1.4% from a Jun forecast of +2.0%. Closes: Dollar index +0.015 (+0.02%), EUR/USD +0.0007 (+0.05%), USD/JPY +0.26 (+0.24%).

Oct WTI crude oil (CLV14 +0.38%) this morning is up +30 cents (+0.32%) and Oct gasoline (RBV14 +0.40%) is up +0.0075 (+0.30%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Thursday settled mixed: CLV4 +1.16 (+1.27%), RBV4 -0.0024 (-0.09%). Oct crude posted a 16-month low and Oct gasoline slid to a 10-month low on bearish factors that included (1) the action by the IEA to lower its 2014 global oil demand forecast by -150,000 bpd to 92.6 million bpd and cut its 2015 global oil demand forecast by -165,000 bpd to 93.8 million bpd, and (2) the action by the IfW Kiel economic institute to cut its 2014 German GDP estimate to +1.4% from a Jun forecast of +2.0% and cut its 2015 German GDP estimate to +1.9% from +2.5%. Crude prices recovered and closed higher, though, after the dollar weakened.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/12/2014
US0830 ETAug retail sales expected +0.6% and +0.3% ex autos, Jul unch and +0.1% ex autos.
0830 ETAug import price index expected -1.0% m/m and -0.4% y/y, Jul -0.2% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
0955 ETPreliminary U.S. Sep University of Michigan consumer confidence expected +0.8 to 83.3, Aug +0.7 to 82.5.
1000 ETJul business inventories expected +0.4%, Jun +0.4%.
JPN0030 ETRevised Japan Jul industrial production, previous +0.2% m/m and -0.9% y/y. Jul capacity utilization, Jun -3.3% m/m.
GER0200 ETGerman Aug wholesale price index, Jul +0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y.
UK0430 ETUK Jul construction output expected +0.6% m/m and +3.2% y/y, Jun +1.2% m/m and +5.3% y/y.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Jul industrial production expected +0.7% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Jun -0.3% m/m and unch y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Q2 employment, Q1 +0.1% q/q and +0.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/12/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Darden Restaurants IncDRI US7:00Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20150.316
WW Grainger IncGWW US8:00August 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014
Darden Restaurants IncDRI US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
WW Grainger IncGWW USAugust 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Graham Holdings CoGHC USShareholders DayY 2014

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