Live Index – Fri, 06 Jun 2014 Premarket
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.10%) this morning are up +0.09% at a fresh all-time high ahead of U.S. May non-farm payrolls and European stocks are up +0.41% after German Apr exports rose by the most in nearly 2 years and as the Bundesbank lifted its German 2014 GDP forecast. Thursday’s action by the ECB to cut interest rates and expand stimulus measures has given European bonds a boost as yields on Belgian, French, Irish, Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds fell to all-time lows today and yields on German 5-year notes fell to a 1-year low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.01%, Hong Kong -0.69%, China -0.74%, Taiwan -0.07% Australia +0.50%, Singapore +0.60%, South Korea closed for holiday, India +1.51%. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 +0.25%) is up +0.25%. July gasoline (RBN14 +0.20%) is up +0.25%. Aug gold (GCQ14 -0.05%) is down -0.10%. July copper (HGN14 -2.09%) is down -1.34% at a 4-week low on concern that a probe into financing transactions at China’s Qingdao port will curb demand in deals using copper for collateral. China’s Qingdao port is assessing inventories in its bonded warehouses to see whether companies using copper for collateral for loans counted the batches multiple times. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) is up +0.10%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.20%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.03%. Sep T-note prices (ZNU14 +0.10%) are up +4.5 ticks.
The Bundesbank raised its German 2014 GDP forecast to +1.9% from a Dec estimate of +1.7% and cut its 2014 inflation forecast to +1.1% from A Dec projection of +1.3%.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that the Eurozone economy is the weakest growing region in the world and that inflation is “massively” below the ECB’s target.
The German Apr trade balance was in surplus by +17.4 billion euros, a wider surplus than expectations of +15.1 billion euros. Apr exports rose +3.0% m/m, better than expectations of +1.3% m/m and the largest increase in nearly 2 years. Apr imports rose +0.1% m/m, less than expectations of +0.8% m/m.
German Apr industrial production rose +0.2% m/m and +1.8% y/y, less than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y.
German Q1 labor costs rose +0.4% q/q and +1.1% y/y with the +1.1% y/y gain the smallest annual increase since Q3 of 2010.
The Japan Apr leading index CI fell -0.5 to 106.6, less than expectations of -1.0 to 106.1. The Apr coincident index fell -3.4 to 111.1, a smaller decline than expectations of -3.6 to 110.9.
Today’s May payroll report is expected to show an increase of +215,000, down from +288,000 in April. The market is expecting today’s May unemployment rate to show a small +0.1 point rise to 6.4%, reversing part of the -0.4 point plunge seen in April to a 5-1/2 year low of 6.3%. None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today. There are no equity conferences today.
Herman Miller (MLHR +2.36%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Longbow.
Joy Global (JOY +6.66%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at BofA/Merrill.
Humana (HUM -0.71%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Stifel.
Peabody (BTU +1.97%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Goldman Sachs.
NBC News reported that The Beastie Boys won a $ 1.7 million verdict in a copyright dispute with Monster Beverage (MNST -0.12%) .
Men’s Wearhouse (MW -0.54%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 69 cents, better than consensus of 67 cents.
Muirfield Capital reported an 8.8% passive stake in DFC Global (DLLR +0.64%) .
Vail Resorts (MTN +1.14%) reported Q3 EPS of $ 3.18, stronger than consensus of $ 2.92.
VeriFone (PAY -0.09%) rose over 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents.
Cooper Companies (COO +0.03%) reported Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $ 1.64, better than consensus of $ 1.60.
Gap (GPS +0.10%) reported May net sales up 4% y/y to $ 1.27 billion.
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.10%) this morning are up +1.75 points (+0.09%) at a new record high. The S&P 500 index on Thursday posted another record high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in European equities after the ECB cut interest rates and expanded measures to boost liquidity in money markets and to spur bank lending, and (2) strength in the U.S. labor market after continuing claims fell -20,000 to a 6-1/2 year low of 2.603 million. Closes: S&P 500 +0.65%, Dow Jones +0.59%, Nasdaq +0.89%.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU14 +0.10%) this morning are up +4.5 ticks. Sep 10-year T-note futures prices on Thursday dropped to a 3-week low early but recovered their losses and settled higher. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds after the ECB cut interest rates and expanded stimulus measures, and (2) short covering and trepidation ahead of Friday’s all-important U.S. May payrolls report. Closes: TYU4 +6.50, FVU4 +3.00.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.05%) this morning is up +0.083 (+0.10%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0027 (-0.20%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.03 (-0.03%). The dollar index on Thursday surged to a 4-month high but then fell back and closed lower after a rally in the S&P 500 to a record high reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar. EUR/USD slumped to a 4-month low after the ECB expanded stimulus measures but rebounded from that low and rallied to a 1-week high and closed higher after the ECB refrained from implementing a full-scale QE program involving government bond purchases. Closes: Dollar Index -0.292 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.00613 (+0.45%), USD/JPY -0.336 (-0.33%).
July WTI crude oil (CLN14 +0.25%) this morning is up +26 cents (+0.25%). July gasoline (RBN14 +0.20%) is up +0.0075 (+0.25%). July crude and gasoline prices on Thursday settled mixed. July crude posted a 2-week low and July gasoline posted a 3-week low on bearish factors that included (1) the surge in the dollar index to a 4-month high, and (2) the ECB’s cut in its Eurozone 2014 GDP estimate to 1.0% from a Mar estimate of 1.2%. Energy prices rebounded from their worst levels and gasoline closed higher after the ECB expanded stimulus measures and after the S&P 500 rose to a new record high. Closes: CLN4 -0.16 (-0.16%) RBN4 +0.0211 (+0.72%).
|US||0830 ET||May non-farm payrolls expected +215,000, Apr +288,000. May private payrolls expected +210,000, Apr +273,000. May manufacturing payrolls expected +10,000, Apr +12,000. May unemployment rate expected +0.1 to 6.4%, Apr -0.4 to 6.3%.|
|0830 ET||May avg hourly earnings expected +0.2% m/m and +2.0% y/y, Apr unch m/m and +1.9% y/y. May avg weekly hours all employees expected unch at 34.5 hours.|
|1500 ET||Apr consumer credit expected +$ 15.0 billion, Mar +$ 17.529 billion.|
|JPN||0100 ET||Japan Apr leading index CI expected -1.0 to 106.1, Mar 107.1. Apr coincident index expected -3.6 to 110.9, Mar 114.5.|
|GER||0200 ET||German Apr industrial production expected +0.4% m/m and +2.7% y/y, Mar -0.5% m/m and +3.0% y/y.|
|0200 ET||German Q1 labor costs, Q4 +0.9% q/q and +2.0% y/y.|
|0200 ET||German Apr trade balance expected +15.1 billion euros, Mar +16.4 billion euros. Apr exports expected +1.3% m/m, Mar -1.8% m/m. Apr imports expected +0.8% m/m, Mar -1.1% m/m.|
|Company Name||Ticker||Time||Event Description||Period||Estimate|
|Wal-Mart Stores Inc||WMT US||8:00||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Travelers Cos Inc/The||TRV US||9:00||Investor Conference||Y 2014|
|Wal-Mart Stores Inc||WMT US||14:15||Investment Community Meeting||Y 2014|
|Garmin Ltd||GRMN US||Annual General Meeting||Y 2014|
|Leidos Holdings Inc||LDOS US||Annual General Meeting|
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