After an inside bullish bar the Dollar Index has continued the rally over the passing week approaching an area of important resistance, the LLBH (Last Low Before High) set 8 weeks ago at 101.95. The reaction with the gap down took away all gains since the beginning of the week, but last Friday closed rather bullish, above the Daily and Weekly 8 EMAs, a sign of strength.
Last Wednesday, the market created a bearish setup, by printing a bearish pinbar on the upper Bollinger band, penetrating the Daily 50 SMA but failing to close above it. The trigger to go short was the thrust down (with a gap down) on last Thursday, target at 100.2. But then came last Friday to close as a bullish bar (still, inside bar) above the 8 EMA, a sign of strength.
If the market starts the week by a new gap down, or by testing the last open gap 101.045-101.164 with an inner day bearish reversal price action (best if the gap is not closed fully), by most chances this bearish trigger is still underway.
On the bigger picture we are still in the Quarterly and Semiannual testing process of the major down trendline (from above) since year 2015. Pay attention that the above mentioned target at 100.2 is approximately on the same down trendline. By Looking at the Monthly chart, you can notice how the thrust down on last January didn’t succeed in closing below the 8 EMA, a sign of strength.