Live Index – Thu, 31 Mar 2016 Premarket

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.01%) are mildly lower by -0.16% this morning due to a resumed decline in crude oil prices, S&P’s cut in its rating outlook for China, and lower European stocks. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is down -1.35%. The China Shanghai index today closed slightly higher by +0.11%, but that was before S&P cut its rating outlook on China to negative. Asian stocks today closed mixed: Japan -0.71%, Hong Kong -0.13%, Taiwan +0.09%, Australia (+1.45%), Singapore -1.11%, South Korea -0.28%, India +0.01%, Turkey -0.16%.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.32%) this morning is down -0.31% as the dollar continues to suffer from deferred rate hike expectations after Yellen’s dovish comments on Tuesday. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0038 (+0.34%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.06 (-0.05%). EUR/USD received a little support from today’s news of a slight uptick in the Eurozone CPI data. June 10-year T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.05%) are up +4.5 ticks.

Commodity prices this morning are little changed on average. May WTI crude oil (CLK16 -0.10%) is down -0.21 (-0.55%) and May gasoline (RBK16 -0.72%) is down -0.0175 (-1.19%) after U.S. crude oil inventories in Wednesday’s weekly EIA rose by +2.2 million bbls to a new record high even though the market had been expecting an even larger 3 million bbl rise. May natural gas (NGK16 -0.05%) is up +0.30%. Metals prices this morning are mixed. April gold (GCJ16 +0.73%) is up +7.7 (+0.63%) and May silver (SIK16 +1.28%) is up +0.119 (+0.78%) on the lower dollar, while May copper (HGK16 -0.73%) is down -0.023 (-1.05%).

Grains are narrowly mixed ahead of today’s USDA quarterly grains and prospective plantings reports. May corn is down -0.50 (-0.14%), May soybeans are unchanged, and May wheat is down -1.25 (-0.27%). Softs are mixed: May sugar -0.12 (-0.76%), May coffee +0.30 (+0.24%), May cocoa -5 (-0.17%), and May cotton -0.19 (-0.33%).

The Eurozone March CPI report of -0.1% y/y was in line with market expectations and was up slightly from Feb’s -0.2% y/y. The Eurozone March core CPI of +1.0% was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.9% and was up from Feb’s +0.8%.

S&P cut its credit rating outlook for China to negative from stable because of its “expectation that the economic and financial risks to the Chinese government’s creditworthiness are gradually increasing.” S&P added, “This follows from our belief that, over the next five years, China will show modest progress in economic rebalancing and credit growth deceleration.” S&P forecast that China’s GDP growth rate will remain at or above 6% in the next three years. S&P left China’s credit rating at AA- for the time being.

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Mar Challenger job cuts (Feb +21.8% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected unchanged at 265,000, previous +6,000 to 265,000) and continuing claims (expected +15,000 to 2.194 million, previous -39,000 to 2.179 million), (3) Mar Milwaukee ISM (Feb +4.86 to 55.22), (4) Mar Chicago PMI (expected +3.2 to 50.8, Feb -8.0 to 47.6), and (5) New York Fed President William Dudley’s speech at the Virginia Association of Economists’ annual meeting titled “The Role of the Federal Reserve – Lessons from the Financial Crisis.”

None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Jefferies Animal Health Summit on Thu, William Blair Cancer Immunotherapy A Long-Awaited Reality Conference on Thu.

June E-mini S&Ps are mildly lower by -0.16% this morning due to a resumed decline in crude oil prices, S&P’s cut in its rating outlook for China, and lower European stocks. Wednesday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.44%, Dow Jones +0.47%, Nasdaq +0.47%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed moderately higher on optimism about the sharp rally in overseas markets on Wednesday after Fed Chair Yellen’s dovish comments on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 index on Wednesday closed up +1.31% and the Shanghai Composite closed up +2.77%. Stocks were also boosted by the favorable March ADP employment report of +200,000 (vs expectations of +195,000), which supported expectations for Friday’s payroll report.

• Tesla (TSLA -1.41%) is due to unveil its Model 3 electric car this evening.
• IBM (IBM -0.62%) will reportedly buy Cloud Consulting for about $ 200 million.
• WebMD (WBMD -0.48%) will will replace SunEdison (SUNE +3.51%) in the S&P MidCap 400 effective April 1 post-market.
• SciClone Pharmaceuticals (SCLN +0.21%) will replace Affymetrix (AFFX -0.57%) in the S&P SmallCap 600
• effective April 1 post-market.
• Square (SQ +9.32%) rallied 10% in after-hours trading after Mizuho called the company an acquisition target
• Terraform Global (GLBL) rallied 15% in after-hours trading after news that Brian Wuebbels resigned as CEO and a board member from both Terraform Global and Teraform Power (TERP -2.67%), SunEdison’s (SUNE +3.51%) yieldco units, effective immediately.
• Micron Technology (MU +0.29%) reported Q2 EPS of -$ 0.05 2Q, which was a little better than the consensus of -0.08.
• Progress Software (PRGS +1.11%) fell 11% in after-hours trading as its 2016 guidance missed estimates and as the CFO retired.
• Medivation (MDVN -3.51%) is working with advisors to defend against a takeover, according to Reuters.

June 10-year T-note prices this morning are up +4.5 ticks. Wednesday’s closes: TYM6 +0.50, FVM6 +5.25. Jun 10-year T-notes on Wednesday closed slightly higher on continued support from Yellen’s dovish comments on Tuesday. T-notes were able to shake off the slightly stronger-than-expected March ADP report of +200,000 and supply overhang from the Treasury’s 7-year T-note auction.

The dollar index this morning is down -0.31% as the dollar continues to suffer from deferred rate hike expectations after Yellen’s dovish comments on Tuesday. EUR/USD is up +0.0038 (+0.34%) and USD/JPY is down -0.06 (-0.05%). EUR/USD received a little support from today’s news of a slight uptick in the Eurozone CPI data. Dollar Index -0.347 (-0.36%), EUR/USD +0.0047 (+0.42%), USD/JPY -0.28 (-0.25%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed mildly lower on continued weakness from Fed Chair Yellen’s dovish comments on Tuesday, which caused the market to delay Fed rate-hike expectations.

May WTI crude oil is down -0.21 (-0.55%) and May gasoline is down -0.0175 (-1.19%) after U.S. crude oil inventories in Wednesday’s weekly EIA rose by +2.2 million bbls to a new record high even though the market had been expecting an even larger 3 million bbl rise. Wednesday’s closes: CLK6 -0.02 (-0.05%), RBK6 -0.0194 (-1.31%). May crude and gasoline on Wednesday closed lower on continued concern about supply overhang. Crude oil failed to get a boost from the weekly EIA report, which was mostly bullish with a +2.229 million bbl rise in crude oil inventories (vs expectations of +3.0 mln bbls), a +2.0 point jump in the U.S. refinery utilization rate to 90.4% (which indicates stronger near-term crude oil demand from refineries), and a -0.2% decline in U.S. crude oil production to a new 1-1/3 year low of 9.022 million bpd. Gasoline inventories fell by -2.514 million bbl, which was close to market expectations.