Live Index – Wed, 13 Jan 2016 Premarket

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.66%) are up +0.61% and European stocks are up +1.30% as Chinese economic concerns eased after Chinese trade data showed China’s exports and imports fell less than expected last month. Strength in crude oil and copper also lifted energy and commodity producers. Most global stock markets moved higher despite a fall in China’s Shanghai Composite to a 4-1/2 month low. European stocks also moved higher even after Eurozone Nov industrial production fell more than expected by the most in 1-1/4 years. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +2.88%, Hong Kong +1.13%, China -2.42%, Taiwan +0.72%, Australia +1.27%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea +1.29%, India +0.70%.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) is up +0.25%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.34%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.40%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.22%) are down -9.5 ticks as the rally in stocks curbs the safe-haven demand for T-notes.

Eurozone Nov industrial production fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the largest decline in 15 months.

Stock data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed margin traders cut holdings of stock purchased on margin for an eighth day on Tuesday, with the total balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange falling to 610.5 billion yuan ($ 92.8 billion), the lowest in 2-1/2 months.

The China Dec trade balance widened to a surplus of +$ 60.09 billion, a larger surplus than expectations of +$ 51.30 billion. Dec exports fell -1.4% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -8.0% y/y. Dec imports fell -7.6% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -11.0% y/y.

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -11.6% with purchase sub-index -11.1% and refi sub-index 12.4%), (2) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans’ speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event in Cedar Rapids, IA, (3) the Treasury’s auction of $ 21 billion 10-year T-notes, (4) Dec monthly budget statement (expected -$ 7.1 billion, Nov -$ 64.553 billion), and (5) Fed Beige Book.

None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: J.P. Morgan Health Care Conference on Mon-Thu, Needham & Company Growth Conference on Tue, Deutsche Bank Global Auto Conference on Tue-Wed.

Tyco International PLC (TYC +0.96%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell’ at UBS.

Qualcomm (QCOM +0.98%) was upgraded to ‘Positive’ from ‘Neutral’ at Susquehanna who also raised the price target on the stock to $ 60 from $ 53.

Charles Schwab (SCHW +1.74%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Bank of America.

Researcher Gartner said that Q4 global personal-computer shipments fell -8.3% y/y to 75.7 million, the fifth consecutive quarter that PC shipments have declined.

Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPS +0.13%) was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs.

Ford Motor (F +0.63%) dropped over 1% in pre-market trading after it projected 2016 North American operating margin of 9.5%, which is below the 10.9% margin through three quarters of 2015.

Yum! Brands (YUM +2.28%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it said its China division December comparable same-store-sales were up +1% y/y.

MetLife (MET +0.67%) jumped over 4% in after-hours trading after it said it plans to pursue separation of U.S. retail operations.

CSX Corp. (CSX +0.77%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 revenue of $ 2.78 billion, below consensus of $ 2.84 billion, and said that “negative global and industrial market trends” including a strong U.S. dollar, low commodity prices to push EPS down in 2016 versus 2015.

Tractor Supply (TSCO +2.43%) slid over 3% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on its fiscal 2015 EPS estimate to $ 2.99-$ 3.00 from an October 21 estimate of $ 3.02-$ 3.08, below consensus of $ 3.08.

Progress Software (PRGS -3.25%) gained 1% in after-hours trading after it projected fiscal 2016 adjusted EPS of $ 1.59-$ 1.65, above consensus of $ 1.55.

Equity One (EQY -1.20%) fell nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it said it will offer 11.4 million shares in a secondary offering.

LendingTree (TREE +5.69%) rose 3% in after-hours trading after it raised guidance on its preliminary yearly revenue estimate to $ 252.5 million-$ 253.5 million from an earlier estimate of $ 244 million-$ 247 million, above consensus of $ 246.3 million.

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.66%) this morning are up +11.75 points (+0.61%). Tuesday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.78%, Dow Jones +0.72%, Nasdaq +1.17%. The S&P 500 on Tuesday closed higher on the rebound in Chinese stocks after the Shanghai Composite recovered from a 4-1/4 month low and closed higher. Stocks also received a boost from the technology sector, which was led by a +1.4% gain in Apple after Bank of America upgraded Apple to a ‘Buy.’ Stocks were undercut by weakness in energy and raw material producer companies as a fall in crude oil to a 12-year low and a slide in copper to a 6-3/4 year low sent the CCI Commodity index down to a 6-3/4 year low.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 -0.22%) this morning are down -9.5 ticks. Tuesday’s closes: TYH6 -1.50, FVH6 +1.00. Mar T-notes on Tuesday rallied to a 2-1/2 month high and closed higher on the slide in commodity prices that pushed the CCI Commodity Index down to a 6-3/4 year low and undercut inflation expectations as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 2-1/2 month low. There was also increased safe-haven demand for T-notes as the plunge in commodity prices undercut raw-material producers and pulled the S&P 500 down from its best levels.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) this morning is up +0.249 (+0.25%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0037 (-0.34%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.47 (+0.40%). Tuesday’s closes: Dollar Index +0.249 (+0.25%), EUR/USD -0.0001 (-0.01%), USD/JPY -0.11 (-0.09%). The dollar index on Tuesday closed higher on the plunge in crude oil to a 12-year low, which undercut commodity currencies with the Canadian dollar falling to a 12-1/2 year low against the dollar. There was also weakness in GBP/USD, which slumped to a 5-1/2 year low against the dollar on speculation the BOE will be unable to raise interest rates anytime soon after UK Nov industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.7% m/m, the biggest decline in 2-3/4 years.

Feb crude oil (CLG16 +2.46%) this morning is up +70 cents (+2.30%) and Feb gasoline (RBG16 -0.44%) is down -0.0043 (-0.40%). Tuesday’s closes: CLG6 -0.97 (-3.09%), RBG6 -0.0282 (-2.53%). Feb crude oil and gasoline on Tuesday closed lower with Feb crude at a 12-year low and Feb gasoline at a 6-3/4 year low. Crude oil prices were undercut by a stronger dollar and expectations that Wednesday’s weekly EIA report will show U.S. crude inventories rose +2.0 million bbl, which would add to the U.S. supply glut with U.S. crude inventories more than 120 million bbl above the 5-year average.